Probability of U.S. Fed Rate Hike Rises to 83%–90%

[Financial News] The probability that the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve System (Fed), will raise its policy rate on the 16th, local time, is 83%–90%, online outlet The Motley Fool reported.
The likelihood of a 0.25-percentage-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which sets monetary policy, has risen sharply after U.S. consumer price data released last week showed a stronger-than-expected increase.
Meanwhile, CME FedWatch, which tracks the probability of Fed rate changes based on 30-day futures prices, showed that the odds of a rate hike at the meeting scheduled for the 15th and 16th, local time, had exceeded 90%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Prediction market platform Kalshi also estimated an 83% probability that the federal funds rate would exceed 3.75% after the September meeting, strengthening expectations for a 0.25-percentage-point hike.
The Motley Fool reported that, with the probability of a rate hike overwhelmingly high on both FedWatch and Kalshi, financial markets also appear to be rapidly pricing in a 0.25-percentage-point hike this week.

[email protected] Yoon Jae-jun Reporter