"Risk of China Invading Taiwan Could Rise in the 2030s," Japan's Defense Research Institute Warns

【Financial News Tokyo = Correspondent Hye-jin Seo】An analysis by an expert at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies found that the risk of China invading Taiwan could be greater in the 2030s, after it addresses its military weaknesses, than in 2027. The warning is that Xi Jinping could decide to take military action if China raises its nuclear capabilities to a level comparable to that of the United States and determines that U.S. intervention is unlikely.
According to Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 11th, Yasuyuki Sugiura, head of the Asia-Africa Division at the National Institute for Defense Studies of Japan's Ministry of Defense and an expert on Chinese politics, predicted on a Radio Nikkei podcast the previous day, "In the 2030s, the likelihood that China will take military action against Taiwan will increase."
In a report released last December, the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had been making steady progress toward being capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.
Sugiura, however, pointed out, "The PLA is not yet prepared to that extent, and there is no reason it must act in 2027." The point is that 2027 marks the target date for the military modernization goal Xi Jinping set for the centenary of the founding of the Chinese military, rather than a definitive deadline for an actual invasion.
He assessed that the PLA was studying the Russo-Ukrainian War and the U.S. military's operations in Venezuela and Iran to identify and address gaps in its capabilities. He added, "At the current pace, many of the elements the PLA lacks will be in place by the 2030s."
He also identified China's rapid expansion of its nuclear forces as a risk factor. Sugiura warned, "When China's nuclear capabilities reach a level comparable to those of the United States, China believes that the United States will not come to Taiwan's defense," adding, "If Xi Jinping then decides that he 'can do it,' an unfortunate situation could arise."
A series of purges among China's military leadership is another factor that could increase the risk of miscalculation. In the Central Military Commission (CMC), the PLA's top leadership body, five of its seven members, including Xi Jinping, have been removed from power in an unusual turn of events. With even military officers personally selected by Xi Jinping being dismissed, opposing views or accurate assessments of the battlefield may not reach the top leadership.
Nihon Keizai Shimbun analyzed, "With Xi Jinping highly likely to secure a fourth term, if he remains the top leader after 2030, whether a Taiwan contingency occurs could depend even more than it does now on Xi Jinping's personal judgment."

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