"There’s a reason Roche picked it"—Hanmi Pharmaceutical’s obesity drug raises prospects for a GLP-1 combination therapy

[Financial News] KB Securities raised its target price for Hanmi Pharmaceutical by 12.1% to 650,000 won. The adjustment reflects the newly assessed value of HM17321, an obesity drug candidate recently licensed to Roche. The firm particularly noted the candidate’s potential to target muscle gain in addition to simple weight loss and to be expanded into a GLP-1 combination therapy.
On the 10th, KB Securities analyst Shin Ji-hoon maintained a Buy rating on Hanmi Pharmaceutical. The key factor behind the target-price increase was the inclusion of HM17321’s pipeline value. In preclinical monotherapy and combination studies, HM17321 demonstrated effects on both weight loss and muscle gain. Shin said, "Roche, a late entrant to the global obesity market, is highly likely to develop HM17321 as a key option to differentiate it from existing treatments."
Its potential for combination therapies is considered a particular strength. Unlike competing candidates such as Eli Lilly and Company’s Bimagrumab, which is antibody-based, HM17321 is a peptide. This gives it a relative advantage in developing not only a standalone treatment but also a combination therapy with GLP-1. If competition in obesity treatments shifts from simple weight loss to "how much muscle loss can be prevented," this could become a differentiating factor.
KB Securities estimated HM17321’s sales in its fifth year after launch at $1.75 billion. Shin projected, "Its value could rise further if its indications are expanded to age-related diseases or if clinical trials confirm improvements in muscle function."
However, uncertainty remains because the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)’s approval standards and clinical endpoints for obesity treatments targeting muscle loss have yet to be clearly established. In addition to increased muscle mass, the treatment may need to demonstrate clinical benefits such as actual improvements in muscle function.
Roche’s R&D Day on September 28 and the results of the Phase 1 multiple ascending dose (MAD) trial, scheduled for completion in the first half of 2027, are seen as potential turning points for incorporating additional value. The launch of Epe later this year, the Phase 2 trial of HM15275, and the possibility of an additional licensing deal for Epegarglucagon also remain in play.
Meanwhile, KB Securities valued Hanmi Pharmaceutical’s combined new-drug pipeline at 3.5 trillion won. Shin judged that "HM17321 could be similar to, or more differentiated than, the amylin class in terms of market positioning."


[email protected] Kim Kyung-ah Reporter