Diabetes Risk: The Rate of Increase Mattered More Than the Absolute Level [Health Check]

[Financial News] People whose metabolic markers deteriorated significantly over a short period had more than twice the risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared with those whose markers did not. Even young, healthy adults should closely monitor changes in metabolic markers identified during health screenings to detect their diabetes risk early.
Type 2 diabetes and prediabetes have recently been increasing even among younger people. When metabolic disease begins at a young age, prolonged exposure to high blood sugar increases the likelihood of long-term complications, highlighting the importance of early management.
A research team led by Professor Shin Su-jeong of the Department of Family Medicine at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital assessed insulin resistance and analyzed changes in 271,592 Koreans aged 18 to 49 who underwent health screenings at the hospital’s Health Screening Center at least twice between 2002 and 2024. The team used the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR).
The researchers divided men and women separately into five groups based on how much their TyG index and HOMA-IR values decreased or increased between their first and second health screenings, then compared the groups.
The group with the largest increase in the TyG index had a 72% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes among men and a 118% higher risk among women than the group with the smallest change. Conversely, the group with the largest decrease in the TyG index had a 29% lower risk among men and a 40% lower risk among women.
For HOMA-IR, the group with the largest increase had a 63% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes among men and a 114% higher risk among women than the group with the smallest change.
Professor Shin said, "This study is significant because it confirmed, using large-scale cohort data, that changes in metabolic markers over time—not just test results at a single point—may be associated with the future risk of diabetes. In particular, the TyG index can be calculated using only fasting blood glucose and triglycerides, which are commonly measured during health screenings, without a separate insulin test. It is therefore advisable to monitor changes in the index during regular health screenings."
The findings were published in the latest issue of the international academic journal Scientific Reports.
 


[email protected] Medical Specialist Reporter Jeong Myeong-jin Reporter