[Editorial] South Korea Projected to Become the World’s Oldest Country... It Must Prepare for an Unprecedented Shock

South Korea is projected to overtake Japan and become the world’s oldest country in 2060. The assessment comes as the world undergoes a sweeping demographic transformation, with the global population aged 65 and older expected to surpass the population of children under five for the first time. The problem is the speed. Because South Korea’s population is aging faster than anywhere else in the world, it will face unprecedented shocks sooner than other countries.
In its recent report “An Aging World: 2025,” the U.S. Census Bureau projected that the share of South Korea’s population aged 65 and older will rise from 20.3% last year, ranking 22nd worldwide, to 41% in 2060, making it the highest in the world. The share of people aged 80 and older will also nearly quadruple from 4.8% to 18.3% over the same period, making South Korea third worldwide after Monaco and Japan.
The old-age dependency ratio, which refers to the number of older people supported by every 100 working-age people aged 15 to 64, will jump from 29.5 last year to 81.6 in 2060. That is 2.5 times the projected global average of 32.1. The country will have a structure in which 1.2 workers support one older person. South Korea’s elderly poverty rate stood at 40.5% in 2020, the highest among member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The report cited the late introduction of the National Pension Service (NPS), inadequate pension coverage and benefit levels, rising life expectancy, and early retirement caused by the seniority-based wage system as contributing factors.
Over several decades, the government has poured hundreds of trillions of won into addressing low birth rates and population aging. Major measures include cash-based support such as parental allowances, expanded parental leave, and housing supplies for newlywed couples. However, critics say the government has failed to overcome structural barriers—including the burden of private education expenses, housing insecurity, and intense competition in education and employment—because it has focused too heavily on cash assistance and short-term measures. Although the total fertility rate has recently rebounded slightly, that increase is insufficient to stem the wave of super-aging. The fundamental causes preventing young people from having children remain unchanged.
Rapid population aging is also expected to place a heavy burden on welfare and medical finances. According to estimates by the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW), the dementia prevalence rate among people aged 65 and older will reach 10.34% in 2040. This means that one in 10 older people will have dementia, and a sharp increase in medical and caregiving costs could significantly intensify the financial burden on National Health Insurance and Long-Term Care Insurance.
Fundamental remedies different from those pursued so far are needed. To address the low birth rate, structural reforms are essential to ease excessive private education expenses and competition over educational status, rather than relying solely on one-off allowances. The sharp decline in the working-age population must be met with labor-market reforms, including raising the retirement age, overhauling wage systems, and making greater use of women and foreign workers. Pension reform must be completed without delay, while wasteful fiscal spending should be streamlined to ensure the sustainability of welfare finances. The structural causes of the low birth rate must be addressed while preparing simultaneously for the aging shock that is already approaching.
Above all, such a sweeping transformation will be possible only if the ruling and opposition parties set aside their political interests. Numerous reform tasks requiring urgent action remain across the labor market, education, pensions, and public finances. A change that no one has ever experienced before is now directly ahead. The establishment of a nationwide response system can no longer be delayed.