Victor Cha: "Immediate Denuclearization of North Korea Is Unrealistic; It Should Be Managed Through a North Korea–U.S. Hotline"

【Financial News Tokyo correspondent Hye-jin Seo】Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argued that North Korea’s immediate abandonment of its nuclear weapons is unrealistic and that a hotline should be established between North Korea and the United States to manage nuclear crises. He said denuclearization should remain a long-term goal, while limits should first be imposed step by step on fissile-material production, missile deployments and nuclear tests.
In an interview published in The Asahi Shimbun on the issue of North Korea’s denuclearization, Cha said, "There are currently almost no means of communication between North Korea and the United States," adding, "To avoid a crisis over nuclear weapons, some kind of system is needed to manage it."
He acknowledged that establishing a North Korea–U.S. hotline could draw criticism for effectively recognizing North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state. However, he called for a pragmatic policy shift, saying, "The situation without any means of communication is far more dangerous."
Cha said, "Denuclearization of North Korea must remain the goal," but noted, "Given how far its nuclear development has progressed, it is unrealistic to think that North Korea will immediately give up its nuclear weapons." He added, "Negotiations to halt fissile-material production, limit missile deployments and ban nuclear tests do not conflict with the long-term goal of denuclearization."
He drew a clear distinction, saying this did not mean abandoning denuclearization or officially recognizing North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state. "If the United States recognized North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state, it would damage the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) regime, but no one is advocating that," he explained. The immediate threats should be reduced while denuclearization remains the ultimate goal, he said.
Cha identified the growing closeness between North Korea and Russia as an issue requiring more urgent attention than denuclearization. "The biggest change in recent years has been the establishment of closer North Korea–Russia ties," he said, noting, "This does not benefit the United States or its allies, but we currently lack the means to weaken the relationship between the two countries."
He said, "Denuclearization of North Korea is an important long-term goal, but it is difficult to achieve immediately. By contrast, North Korea–Russia ties are deepening rapidly and must be addressed as an urgent issue."
He also stressed that South Korea and Japan must not be excluded if the United States changes its policy toward North Korea. "If the United States reconsiders its North Korea strategy, it is essential to pursue it in cooperation with Japan and South Korea while strengthening deterrence," Cha said. "Otherwise, it could appear that the United States is trying to separate its allies from one another."
He analyzed that the United States’ recent attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities may instead have given North Korea greater confidence. Although the United States knew the locations of Iran’s nuclear facilities, it failed to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear development capabilities through large-scale attacks. In North Korea’s case, the United States does not even know the locations of all its nuclear facilities. Cha also raised the possibility that North Korea’s nuclear facilities may be buried deeper underground than Iran’s.
He said there had been no substantive progress on the North Korea issue during the four years of the former Joe Biden administration, and that the restoration of North Korea–U.S. relations expected after the Donald Trump administration took office had also failed to materialize. "Now is an opportunity to reset the discussion surrounding North Korea," he said.

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