August DRAM and NAND Prices Hit Record Highs, but Slower Gains Renew Peak-Out Fears

[Financial News] The average monthly prices of memory chips DRAM Washington and NAND flash memory hit record highs last month, but their pace of increase slowed, with DRAM rising just 4.2% month on month and NAND flash memory up 1.4%. DRAM prices in the third and fourth quarters are expected to rise 18% to 23%, while NAND flash memory is forecast to gain 10% to 15%, keeping concerns alive that the memory market is nearing a peak-out. Still, most in the semiconductor industry say the slower price gains cannot be used as evidence of a peak-out, and that demand for memory chips will remain strong for the next two years.
According to market researcher DRAMeXchange on the 1st, the average fixed transaction price in August for a general-purpose PC DRAM Washington product, DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8, rose 4.2% from the previous month to $25, up from $24 in July. The average price of DDR4 had posted double-digit gains for 11 straight months from April last year, when it stood at $1.7, through February this year, before flattening in March. From April through July this year, it continued to rise by double digits except in May, when it gained 5%, but last month the increase slowed to 4.2%.
TrendForce, DRAMeXchange's parent company, said, "Most DRAM suppliers and PC OEMs completed contract price negotiations for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 by August," adding that "the scale of the increase has eased compared with the surge seen in the second quarter, when prices jumped 45% to 50%."
The average fixed transaction price in August for a general-purpose NAND flash memory product used in memory cards and USB drives, 128Gb 16Gx8 MLC, rose 1.4% from the previous month to $30.5. That marked 20 consecutive months of gains. However, as buyers faced heavier cost burdens, the increase in the average selling price for SLC narrowed to 16% to 28%, down from the previous 34% to 51% range in July.
MLC also rose only 1.4% to 1.5% from the previous month, a figure close to flat. TrendForce said, "MLC is also expected to see a further slowdown in price gains as high costs reduce final margins and buyers' urgency to chase purchases fades."
In this regard, the market believes the upward trend in memory chip prices will continue at least through the fourth quarter of this year.
Lee Min-hwi, a semiconductor analyst at BNK Securities, said, "Server demand is holding up well, and prices will keep rising through the fourth quarter because memory makers are facing supply shortages." He added, "However, since memory prices are already high, further increases are difficult, so the market consensus is for gains in the single-digit range."
There is also debate over whether a slowdown in the pace of gains is an appropriate indicator for judging a semiconductor peak-out.
An industry source said, "To determine a peak-out, memory chip prices would need to fall or demand would need to weaken." The source added, "Although the pace of price increases has slowed, the trend is still upward, and demand for higher-performance AI chips has grown even stronger." The source explained that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expanding capacity, but production has not yet increased because the factories are still under construction. Industry watchers believe it will take about two more years before supply catches up with demand.
Meanwhile, surging demand is also boosting demand for Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor (MLCC), which are essential for AI data center.
As demand for high-spec products for AI servers rises and supply tightens, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expected to raise MLCC prices in the fourth quarter of this year. Prices for general consumer X5R products are expected to rise by an average of 25% to 30%, while high-spec X6S products used in AI servers are forecast to increase by 10% to 20% on average, depending on negotiations with clients. Analysts say supply of X6S for AI servers is likely to remain tight as demand for AI data center continues.



[email protected] Park So-hyun Park Ji-yeon Reporter