Apple and Nike Have Left China One After Another... Vietnam Tops the U.S. Trade Surplus List

[Financial News] As U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariff barriers aimed at China, Vietnam has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the global supply chain reshuffle. High tariffs on Chinese goods have accelerated companies' move out of China, shifting the U.S. trade deficit from China to Vietnam.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 26th local time, U.S. federal statistics show that Vietnam's goods trade surplus with the United States reached $114 billion, or about 157 trillion won, in the first half of this year. That figure surpassed Taiwan Creative Content Agency, Mexico, and even China, once the symbol of America's trade deficit.
The result is unusual, given that Vietnam's economy is only about one-fourth the size of Mexico's. WSJ said Vietnam has emerged as the biggest winner just one year after Trump pushed ahead with tariff policies in an effort to reshape the global trade order in America's favor.
The backdrop is the widening tariff gap between China and Vietnam. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports stood at 23.2% as of June. That is more than three times the global average of 7%. By contrast, the effective tariff rate on Vietnamese products was only 6.5%.
For companies that cannot afford to lose the U.S. market, that created a powerful incentive to move production out of China. Global firms such as Apple Inc., Nike, Inc., and Lululemon Athletica reduced their reliance on Chinese manufacturing and expanded production in Vietnam, while smaller companies followed suit.
A representative example is TOV Furniture, a furniture maker based in Miami. In 2024, the company sourced 60% of its sofas, beds, and other products from China and 25% from Vietnam. That ratio has now completely reversed, with China at 25% and Vietnam at 60%. Bruce Krinsky, the company's founder, said the reason for shifting production bases was "purely because of tariffs."
The relocation of production bases is also reflected in U.S. import data. In the first half of this year, U.S. imports of goods from Vietnam totaled $123 billion, up 40% from the same period last year. In just six months, that already exceeded the $114 billion the United States imported from Vietnam in all of 2023.
Vietnam has not become the United States' largest source of imports overall. In total U.S. imports, Mexico and Canada still account for the largest shares, while Taiwan Creative Content Agency and China also rank ahead of Vietnam. Vietnam has risen to the top of the U.S. trade surplus list because it sells far more goods to the United States than it buys from it.
There are also suspicions that some of the surge in Vietnam's exports reflects transshipment, with Chinese goods passing through Vietnam to avoid tariffs before entering the United States. However, U.S. companies operating locally argue that Vietnam's own production capacity expansion is the bigger factor.
Mark Gillin, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, said that about 60% of Vietnam's exports to the United States are machinery, electronics, and home appliances. He added that companies with large production facilities in Vietnam, including Samsung Electronics, Intel, and Foxconn, are driving the increase in exports.
Trump's tariff policy has been effective in curbing China's exports to the United States, but it has not eliminated U.S. import demand itself. As companies that once produced in China move factories to Vietnam and other countries, the United States' trade deficit is shifting to different partners as well. The tariff wall built to target China, the world's factory, is paradoxically accelerating the rise of Vietnam as a new production hub.

[email protected] Kim Kyung-min Reporter