21 Typhoons Have Formed, Yet None Have Made Landfall on the Korean Peninsula... Why Has the 'Road to Korea' Not Opened?

[Financial News, Jeju = Reporter Jung Yong-bok] Twenty-one typhoons formed in the Western North Pacific through late August this year. That is 55.6% more than the 13.5 average for the same period, and it already equals 83.7% of the annual average of 25.1. Yet not a single typhoon has made landfall on the Korean Peninsula. Only one storm, Typhoon Jangmi, has been officially classified by the Korean Meteorological Administration as affecting Korea.
It is a paradox of the 2026 typhoon season: the ocean was warm enough to generate many storms, but a track leading to the Korean Peninsula has rarely formed. This year's storm paths clearly split toward China, Japan, and the open waters of the Western North Pacific. The position and edge of the North Pacific High, along with mid-latitude pressure systems, appear to have steered the storms toward China or Japan rather than Korea.
That said, the fact that typhoons have missed Korea so far does not mean the country is safe through September. If the position of the North Pacific High changes, the storm corridor can shift as well. On average, 5.1 typhoons form in the Western North Pacific in September.
■ Tracking where this year's 21 typhoons went

According to typhoon statistics released by the Korean Meteorological Administration on the 27th, 21 typhoons formed from January through August this year. By month, there was one each in January, February, March, and April, two in May, two in June, five in July, and eight in August.
In a typical year, 13.5 typhoons form between January and August. This year, that is 7.5 more than average. Compared with the annual average of 25.1, the total had already surpassed 80% before the end of August.
The situation was the opposite in terms of Korea's exposure. In a normal year, 3.4 typhoons affect Korea, but this year only one storm, Jangmi, has been officially counted.
The Korean Meteorological Administration's term 'typhoon affecting Korea' does not necessarily mean a storm made landfall on the Korean Peninsula. Since 2011, the designation has been based on whether typhoon warnings were issued in Korea's typhoon warning zones.
Typhoon Jangmi was recorded as the first storm to affect Korea this year when a typhoon warning was issued for the outer waters of the southern East Sea on June 2. However, it did not enter land on the Korean Peninsula and instead passed south of Japan before moving eastward. It brought swells and other impacts to Jeju Province and the southern coast.
Financial News classified the main tracks of Typhoons No. 1 through No. 21 based on data from the Korean Meteorological Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven moved toward China, five toward Japan, and the remaining nine weakened near the Philippines and the Mariana Islands or stayed over the open waters of the Western North Pacific.
The China-bound group included Typhoons Bavi, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Saudel, Nara, and Gaenari. The Japan-bound group included Jangmi, Typhoon Mekkhala, Typhoon Higos, Typhoon Chan-hom, and Nangka.
Storm-track classification and whether a typhoon affects Korea are based on different criteria. As with Jangmi, a storm can be tracked toward Japan but still be recorded as a typhoon affecting Korea if it triggers typhoon warnings over Korean waters.
Recent conditions show the same pattern. Typhoon Saudel, the 18th of the year, was moving westward over the sea at 3 a.m. on the 27th, with a central pressure of 960 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 39 meters per second. The Korean Meteorological Administration said Saudel was expected to cross the East China Sea, move toward China's eastern coast, and weaken into a tropical depression around the 29th.
It had reached as far south as the area below the Korean Peninsula, but instead of turning north toward Jeju Province or the southern coast, it continued westward.
■ Warm seas fueled typhoons, but high pressure split their paths

The reason for the high number of typhoons and the reason they did not come to the Korean Peninsula should be examined separately.
Typhoon formation is influenced by sea-surface temperatures, heat stored in the ocean, and atmospheric convection. In June, when Jangmi formed, the Korean Meteorological Administration said sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the Western North Pacific, including waters around Korea, were above average, creating conditions favorable for tropical depressions to form and intensify.
In fact, typhoon formation was fast from the start of the year. By May 21, five storms had already formed, twice the cumulative average of 2.5 at that time.
But where a typhoon goes is determined by the surrounding pressure systems. The North Pacific High is the key variable. Typhoons often do not punch straight through the center of a massive high-pressure system; instead, they tend to follow the winds along its edge. Combined with the mid-latitude westerlies and the position of troughs, this determines whether a storm moves west, turns north, or curves east of Japan.
In its summer outlook released in May, the Korean Meteorological Administration also said typhoons this year were likely to move mainly toward the seas southeast of Japan or near Taiwan.
At the time, the agency also identified the North Pacific High as the key factor in whether Korea would be affected. It said that if the edge of the high-pressure system sat south of Korea, a typhoon could move north along the East China Sea, and if the high contracted, a storm could affect the Korean Peninsula after passing near Kyushu, Japan.
Through late August, however, such a 'road to Korea' did not form consistently. Typhoons moving west were drawn toward China, while those turning northeast veered toward Japan or the open Pacific.
So it is more accurate to say that the North Pacific High did not block typhoons outright, but rather that its position and edge created paths toward China and Japan.
■ Pressure systems that deflected typhoons also intensified the heat

An interesting point is that typhoon tracks and heat waves on the Korean Peninsula are linked to the same summer pressure systems.
According to the Korean Meteorological Administration's July climate analysis, the North Pacific High gradually expanded from the southeast of Korea in the latter part of the month, bringing mostly clear and hot weather.
The national average temperature in July was 26.8 degrees Celsius, 2.2 degrees above normal and the third highest on record. In particular, the number of tropical nights nationwide reached 9.7 days, the highest since nationwide weather observations were expanded in 1973.
In the southern regions and Jeju Province, clear skies persisted under the influence of the North Pacific High, and rainfall was below average. In other words, the large-scale pressure pattern that kept typhoons away from the Korean Peninsula also trapped hot air elsewhere, intensifying tropical nights and heat waves.
Still, typhoon tracks and heat waves should not be viewed as having a single cause. Typhoon paths are shaped not only by the North Pacific High, but also by mid-latitude troughs, the westerlies, and the storm's own position and strength.
The key point is that the same North Pacific High can create heat waves on the Korean Peninsula while also providing different storm tracks, depending on how far it extends and where its edge is located.
■ Average of 5.1 typhoons in September... signals may first appear around Jeju waters

The problem is that typhoon season is not over yet.
According to the Korean Meteorological Administration's 1991-2020 climate averages, the Western North Pacific sees an average of 5.1 typhoons in September and 3.5 in October. Roughly one-third of all typhoons in a year form in September and October.
As September begins, the North Pacific High may contract, its edge may shift, and mid-latitude troughs may move south, creating a different track from the one seen so far. For that reason, it is difficult to conclude that typhoon risk is low this year simply because no storm has made landfall through August. Jeju Province, in particular, is a region where typhoon impacts cannot be judged only by landfall.
Jangmi did not enter land on the Korean Peninsula, but it still generated swells along Jeju's coast. Even as Saudel's center is not heading toward Jeju, storm warnings remain in effect on the southern outer waters and southeastern inner waters of Jeju Province on the 27th.
That is because even hundreds of kilometers from a typhoon's center, areas can first feel the storm's wind field, swells, high waves, and moisture inflow.
Satellite images on the morning of the 27th also showed Typhoon Saudel moving into the East China Sea, while Typhoon Nara and a new tropical depression were active over the Western North Pacific. The official typhoon count currently stands at 21, but more storms could still form.
This year's typhoon paradox is clear. The ocean was warm enough to generate storms, and the formation rate was well above average. But so far, no path to the Korean Peninsula has opened.
The remaining typhoon season will not be shaped only by how many more storms form. Where the edge of the North Pacific High shifts, and what kind of path the mid-latitude pressure systems create, will be the more direct warning signs for the Korean Peninsula and Jeju Province.


[email protected] Jung Yong-bok Reporter