Hana Securities: "Hanmi Pharmaceutical's KRW 3 Trillion Technology Export, Muscle Preservation That Roche Took Notice Of... Target Price Raised to KRW 660,000"

[Financial News] The securities market is focusing less on the total contract value and more on the share of upfront payment and the value of "muscle preservation" in Hanmi Pharmaceutical's technology export deal worth more than KRW 3 trillion. The fact that Roche paid more than 8% of the total deal value as an upfront fee for a candidate still in Phase 1 trials suggests that it placed a high value on Hanmi Pharmaceutical's obesity pipeline.
On the 24th, Hana Securities maintained its investment rating of "Buy" on Hanmi Pharmaceutical and raised its target price to KRW 660,000. Earlier that day, Hanmi Pharmaceutical licensed out its muscle-preserving obesity treatment candidate HM17321 to Genentech, a wholly owned subsidiary of Roche.
The upfront payment is $19 million, and the maximum milestone payments total $2.115 billion, bringing the overall deal value to more than $2.3 billion. Royalties are separate.
Researcher Kim Sun-ah of Hana Securities paid particular attention to the 8.2% upfront payment ratio. She said, "It exceeds the average upfront payment ratio of 6% to 7% in global licensing deals, and considering that HM17321 is still in Phase 1 trials, this is a favorable contract for Hanmi Pharmaceutical." She added, "The upfront payment that will be made immediately, rather than the 'up to KRW 3 trillion' headline figure, shows the quality of this deal."
HM17321 is designed for once-weekly dosing and aims to reduce weight while preserving muscle at the same time. As competition in the obesity treatment market has expanded beyond simple weight loss to how much muscle can be preserved while reducing fat, the drug is being seen as a differentiated mechanism.
There is also potential to expand its indications beyond obesity. In preclinical results released in June, HM17321 showed increased muscle strength not only in diabetes and obesity models, but also in an age-related sarcopenia model. Hana Securities said the drug's high combination value and potential for expansion into sarcopenia and other areas helped drive the deal, despite it still being an early-stage compound, into a contract worth more than $2.3 billion.
Its follow-up pipeline, HM15275, is also being re-evaluated. Kim explained that it is a triple-acting agent currently in Phase 2 trials in the United States, and that animal studies showed greater fat reduction and lean-mass preservation than tirzepatide.
Meanwhile, Hana Securities reflected the value of HM17321 at KRW 101.58 billion and raised its target price to KRW 660,000. The firm said the technology export could become a turning point not only for confirming the value of HM17321 alone, but also for re-evaluating Hanmi Pharmaceutical's entire "muscle-preserving obesity pipeline."
[email protected] Kim Kyung-a Reporter