"Samsung to Beat Apple and Reclaim No. 1 in Global Smartphone Market"...Here’s What’s Behind It

[Financial News] Samsung Electronics is expected to overtake Apple Inc. and reclaim the top spot in the global smartphone market this year.
On the 24th, market research firm Counterpoint Research projected that global smartphone shipments will fall 14.3% from a year earlier this year. The increase in prices for key components, led by memory semiconductors such as DRAM and NAND flash, is weighing on entry-level product supply and consumer purchasing power. 
Smartphone shipments are expected to fall another 1.4% in 2027, before recovering only in 2028.
Shipment forecasts varied by manufacturer. Samsung Electronics’ smartphone shipments are expected to increase 0.8% from a year earlier this year.
Samsung Electronics was seen as benefiting from its broad product portfolio, including the flagship Samsung Galaxy S series and the mid- to low-priced Samsung Galaxy A series, as well as strong in-house component sourcing capabilities and a stable carrier and distribution network.
Apple Inc.’s shipments are forecast to decline 2.1% this year before growing 2.8% in 2027. Although Apple is expected to launch its first foldable phone in the third and fourth quarters of this year, sales are likely to amount to only several tens of millions of units, which would have little effect on the overall shipment trend. 
In particular, the lower the price of a product, the larger the share of component costs in total costs, meaning the impact of rising costs will be greater. Premium products are relatively less sensitive to price, so demand is expected to hold up, but mid- to low-priced products are likely to see weaker demand, creating a polarized market.
As a result, major Chinese smartphone makers such as Honour and Vivo are expected to see their shipments fall 15% to 34% this year. Because they focus on mid- to low-priced products and price-sensitive markets, the hit is expected to be even greater.
Counterpoint Research said, "In 2028, as component supply improves and retail prices stabilize, a clear rebound is expected, with global smartphone shipments growing by about 4.8% as deferred demand from 2026 and 2027 is realized."
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