All Eyes on NVIDIA and Jackson Hole: KOSPI's Test to Hold 7,000 [Weekly Market Outlook]

[Financial News] This week's market direction is expected to hinge on NVIDIA Corporation's earnings and the Jackson Hole meeting as key factors in KOSPI's effort to hold above the 7,000 level. As expectations remain high for the AI investment cycle, investors will be watching whether NVIDIA can deliver results strong enough to support semiconductor sentiment and whether global long-term yields, which have recently weighed on stocks, can stabilize.
According to the securities industry on the 23rd, NH Investment & Securities set this week's KOSPI range at 6,400 to 7,500. It cited NVIDIA's earnings and easing rate volatility as upside factors, while taking profit-taking pressure as a downside risk.
Market attention is focused on NVIDIA Corporation's earnings release scheduled for the 27th. The key question is not only whether results will beat market expectations, but also whether the company can maintain a high gross margin. As the company is in the early stage of shifting from Blackwell to the next-generation Rubin GPU architecture, any margin erosion from cost pressure could shape views on the profitability of AI investment.
Daishin Securities said NVIDIA's earnings could become a driver of a second rebound in the stock market. Key points to watch include next-quarter guidance, gross margin, plans to ramp up Blackwell production, and Rubin shipment outlook. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "As confidence in the AI investment cycle has continued through recent big tech earnings, strong results from NVIDIA and positive guidance could improve investment sentiment across AI and semiconductors and serve as a trigger for a second rebound in the stock market." He added, "However, given persistent external uncertainty, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that upside momentum will remain limited even if earnings improve."
Along with NVIDIA's earnings, movements in global long-term yields are another major variable for the market this week. Recently, global long-term rates have surged, with the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rising above 5.3%, putting pressure on stocks. Factors cited for the increase include heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, continued concerns over a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, expanded fiscal spending by countries, and large-scale corporate bond issuance by big tech firms to fund AI investment. Still, concerns over rates have eased somewhat after the Treasury Department at least doubled the size of its long-term bond buyback program.
That is why market attention is turning to the Jackson Hole meeting, scheduled for the 27th to the 29th. In particular, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a keynote speech on the 28th. Rather than direct comments on the future path of interest rates, the market is watching how the Fed views the recent rise in long-term yields and the Treasury Department's expanded long-term bond buybacks.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "If NVIDIA's earnings confirm the continuation of the AI cycle and Jackson Hole helps calm volatility in U.S. Treasury yields, valuation normalization is likely to continue." He added, "If KOSPI settles above the 7,000 level, it would be effective to broaden the strategy to include non-semiconductor sectors where AI monetization is being confirmed through earnings."
[email protected] Choi Du-seon Reporter