Bitcoin Reclaims 100 Million Won After Two Months... Bottom Signal Points to $100,000 by Year-End

[Financial News] Bitcoin has climbed back above the 100 million won level for the first time in about two months. Expectations that the U.S. Department of the Treasury will expand its buyback of long-term Treasury bonds pushed down U.S. long-term yields, while the dollar also weakened. In addition, a large amount of accumulated short positions was liquidated, sharply increasing buying power. On-chain indicators are also showing signals that were previously seen near the bottom of past down cycles, raising the possibility that the decline may be nearing its end.


According to the industry on the 22nd, Bitcoin rose above 100 million won on domestic exchanges on the 20th. It had been about two months since it last touched that level on June 16, after which it continued to fall. In the global market, Bitcoin has also accelerated its rebound from the mid-$60,000 range and moved back above $70,000.
The main catalyst for the rebound is seen as the Treasury Department's plan to expand buybacks of long-term Treasury bonds. The department will raise the buyback amount for 10- to 30-year bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move came shortly after the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.338%, its highest level since 2007.
Right after the announcement, the 30-year yield fell to around 5.19%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.76%. Gold prices surged sharply in a short period. Analysts say the slowdown in long-term yield gains and the weaker dollar have renewed Bitcoin's appeal and supply-demand logic. In particular, because Bitcoin is a scarce asset, its price can react quickly when liquidity conditions improve.
The rise was amplified by short covering on top of the interest-rate and dollar factors. As Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels, positions held by investors betting on a decline were unwound one after another. Forced liquidations were then converted into buy orders, adding further upward pressure.

Not only supply and demand, but on-chain indicators are also showing signs that Bitcoin may have passed its bottom. That is because MVRV, which compares market value with realized value, has recently risen sharply.
MVRV is widely used to gauge where an asset stands relative to investors' average purchase price at the current price level. When the indicator turns upward, it can be interpreted as a sign that selling pressure is easing and investors are beginning to move away from stop-losses and liquidations.
The medium- to long-term outlook is relatively optimistic. Mark Connors, CIO of Risk Dimensions, said, "If Treasury measures ease the burden of long-term bond yields, Bitcoin will have a foundation to rise to between $180,000 and $360,000." He identified progress on the CLARITY Act around September 15 as the key short-term variable.
Standard Chartered said that if Bitcoin breaks through key resistance, it could signal that the bottom of this cycle has already formed, and projected a possible rise to $100,000 by year-end. VanEck also maintained its previous forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 next year.

[email protected] Kang Gu-gwi Reporter