Cold War or Escalation? U.S. Pushes 'Economic Sanctions' as Iran Says 'Operations Continue'

The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran, which began after a ceasefire memorandum was signed in June, ended on the 17th local time with no results. Iran was reportedly never convinced by the truce in the first place, and the United States, short on munitions, appears likely to rely on intense economic pressure rather than military strikes before the November election.
■ The Strait of Hormuz remains closed
The United States, which launched a war against Iran together with Israel on February 28, signed a ceasefire memorandum on June 17 after a truce in April and agreed to suspend hostilities for 60 days while pursuing further negotiations. The deal had already effectively collapsed by the end of last month amid disputes over control around the Strait of Hormuz, and the written truce also expired on the 16th. CNN, citing U.S. maritime intelligence platform Kepler on the 17th, reported that zero ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 16th. Before the war, an average of 135 vessels passed through the strait each day, through which about 25% of global seaborne oil shipments flow. Traffic had risen to more than 70 vessels a day last month, but it dropped sharply again as the two sides clashed once more.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament who served as Tehran's chief negotiator in the ceasefire talks, said in a speech to parliament on the 16th, "I declare with all sincerity that we won the war." He argued that any goals set by the United States and Israel at the start of the conflict had "failed to be achieved," calling it "their biggest and most certain failure." That same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stressed that the collapsed ceasefire memorandum had been concluded after in-depth discussions among experts and was based on "dignity and strength." He said, "We pushed the recent agreement forward with strong power and did not submit to our enemies."
Earlier, Türkiye's state-run Anadolu Agency (AA) claimed in a report on the 12th that the United States and Iran had agreed to extend the truce. On the same day, a senior Iranian official told a British media outlet that no talks had taken place on extending the truce with the United States, and that while discussions were held on the timing of returning to and implementing the memorandum, there had been no progress.
■ A hardline standoff likely to continue
On the 16th, The Wall Street Journal reported that hardliners inside Iran did not trust the United States despite the memorandum signing and had spent the 60-day period preparing for an escalation. Middle East officials claimed that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, had reorganized security bodies with further escalation in mind while the ceasefire talks were underway. The hardliners rebuilt their posture by expanding the regular army's control under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), increasing missile and drone production, and placing combat veterans in key posts. At the same time, they coordinated strike plans against U.S. forces in the Middle East in consultation with the Houthi rebels in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq aligned with Iran. The IRGC was also said to have drawn up escalation plans including cutting undersea communication cables in the Persian Gulf, triggering unrest in countries with Shiite populations such as Kuwait and Bahrain, and carrying out ground operations in Kuwait.
On the 15th, Amir Hatami, commander of the Iranian military, told IRNA News Agency in an interview that "calls to place a bounty on U.S. troops are pouring in," and declared that Iran would offer a bounty for U.S. soldiers. Hatami said, "Anyone who kills, captures, and hands over invading U.S. troops will receive a reward of $30,000, or 500 million tomans, from the Islamic Republic of Iran's military." He added, "Brave Iranian women who carry out such missions will receive double the reward."
The United States, which is grappling with dwindling missile stockpiles and fatigue from aircraft carrier operations, is placing more weight on sanctions than on expanding military operations. In an interview on the 13th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said of Iran, "Watch for additional announcements next week," adding, "We will apply measures never before seen in the history of economically isolating a country." Referring to the February airstrike operation against Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, he said, "We have shifted from Epic Fury to Economic Fury," and added, "At the president's direction, we have raised the level once again."
[email protected] Park Jong-won Reporter