Agreement Reached on Passage Through the Strait of Hormuz... Hardline Backlash in Iran Remains a Variable

[Financial News] Arab mediators negotiating with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have run into obstacles. There is growing concern that even if Iranian diplomats, who are under intense pressure from hardliners at home, reach a deal, they may lack the practical authority to carry it out.
On the 6th local time, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing Arab mediators, reported that Iran's chief negotiators, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, had initially been receptive to a proposal to divide the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz into entry and exit routes along the Iranian and Omani coasts. However, negotiations began to unravel after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) put forward tougher demands, including explicit recognition of Iran's control over the strait, the right to impose transit fees, and easing of U.S. oil sanctions.
The report said the turmoil stemmed from deep political infighting inside Iran.
Hardline media and political circles in Iran are now intensifying their attacks on Foreign Minister Araghchi, even pushing for impeachment and denouncing him for what they call "humiliating diplomacy." The Revolutionary Guard, which controls the strait, is leading the hardline standoff and appears to favor extracting concessions through military threats rather than reaching a diplomatic settlement.
To improve the chances of a deal, the mediators are broadening the talks beyond a simple transit agreement for the strait to include economic support measures such as the release of frozen assets and a suspension of sanctions on oil exports. President Masoud Pezeshkian is making every effort to persuade the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to help overcome the country's severe economic crisis. However, analysts say there is no mediator with the authority to coordinate the political situation, given the new supreme leader's conservative leanings and rare public engagement.
Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), said, "The Revolutionary Guard is currently dominating the agenda and pace of the negotiations." He added, "Their threats of provocation are intended to force concessions from the U.S. military, but they also risk reigniting the situation into a deadly clash."


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