Chungcheong for Kim Min-seok, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam for Jung Chung-rae... Honam's swing vote becomes even more important

Kim Min-seok and Jung Chung-rae, who are running for the Democratic Party of Korea leadership, are locked in a close race after narrow wins in the Chungcheong and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region primaries, respectively. However, many in the ruling bloc believe that under the preferential voting system, Kim has the advantage unless Jung wins an outright majority in first-choice votes. That is why attention is now focused on the Honam primary, where the share of party members with voting rights is the largest.
In the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam primary count announced on the 2nd, Jung won 25,189 votes, or 46.65%, edging out Kim, who received 23,675 votes, or 43.84%. In the previous day's primaries in North Chungcheong Province, South Chungcheong Province, Daejeon and Sejong City, Kim narrowly defeated Jung with 30,632 votes, or 45.05%, compared with Jung's 30,329 votes, or 44.61%.
In the first round of the party leadership race, Kim and Jung have been separated by less than 3 percentage points. Still, many in the ruling bloc see it as a win for Kim on points.
First, there is the regional factor. Many had expected Jung, whose hometown is Geumsan County in South Chungcheong Province, to have the upper hand in Chungcheong. When the primary schedule was being set, lawmakers aligned with Lee Jae Myung even raised objections because they were backing Kim and Song Young-gil. In that region, Kim pulled off a surprise narrow victory.
Another reason Kim is seen as having won on points is the preferential voting system. Under this system, votes cast for the lowest-ranked candidate as a first choice are transferred to the candidate selected as the second choice. Meanwhile, Song, who is joining Kim in pressuring Jung as a pro-Lee Jae Myung contender for the party leadership, is drawing around 10% of the vote. Song took 7,027 votes, or 10.34%, in the Chungcheong primary and 5,129 votes, or 9.49%, in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region. Since most voters who listed Song first are likely to have chosen Kim second, Kim can be seen as having pulled ahead of Jung by roughly Song's vote share.
As Kim and Jung trade the lead back and forth, their attacks on each other are growing more intense.
At a joint speech event in Ulsan, Jung lashed out bluntly, saying, "I knew it back in 2002, when he betrayed Roh Moo-hyun and went to Chung Mong-joon." He added, "Kim, who attacked the party by raising Shincheonji allegations and hurt the hearts of party members, will definitely be referred to the party's ethics tribunal and made to face judgment if I become party leader."
At the same event, Kim raised questions about Jung's responsibility as the former party leader for election losses. He pointed to the by-election defeats in the Busan Buk-gu-gap constituency and the Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi constituency, as well as the loss in the Seoul Metropolitan City mayoral race, saying Jung lacked strategy. He then criticized Jung's frequent visits to Honam during the last presidential election, saying, "When he was told to run all over the country, he went to Honam, where you can win even without running." He added, "That was the beginning of his own politics, and the beginning of the conflict between Lee Jae Myung and Jung."
The mutual barrage from the two candidates is aimed at the Honam primary scheduled for the 15th. Honam is a decisive battleground, home to 30% of party members with voting rights. For Jung in particular, winning Honam is essential if he wants to neutralize the preferential voting system by securing a majority of first-choice votes.
For that reason, Kim and Song, who are challenging Jung, are already planning visits to Honam starting on the 3rd. Kim will visit Jeonju University and the Kim Daejung Convention Center in Gwangju to hold what he called a "mega rally." The event will outline plans to support three major mega projects, including the Lee Jae Myung administration's 800 trillion won investment in Honam semiconductors. The aim is to highlight mega projects that bring direct benefits to Honam and further strengthen the case for unity between the party and the government. Song plans to meet with citizens in Yeosu, Suncheon, Gwangyang and Damyang County.
[email protected] Kim Yun-ho Jiwon Song reporters