With Homeplus on the Brink of Bankruptcy, Retailers See a Sharp Rebound in Third-Quarter Business Sentiment

[Financial News] Offline retailers, including large discount stores, department stores and convenience stores, are expected to see a sharp improvement in business sentiment in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter.
According to the third-quarter 2026 Retail Distribution Business Survey Index (RBSI) conducted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) among 500 retail companies, the outlook for the sector rose 12 points from 80 in the previous quarter to 92. An RBSI reading above 100 means more companies expect business conditions to improve in the next quarter, while a reading below 100 indicates a more negative outlook.
KCCI said the third quarter showed signs of recovery, driven by expectations of more foreign tourists, the summer vacation season and the consumption boost from Chuseok, which falls from Sept. 24 to 26 this year. Among the 178 companies that expected conditions to improve, the main reasons cited were increased demand during the summer holiday and holiday season, at 80.3% of multiple responses, and better household consumer sentiment, at 57.9%.
Department stores, which rose from 115 to 139, remained above the benchmark of 100 for a second straight quarter and posted the highest index among all retail formats. While the wealth effect continued to support stable spending, sales from foreign tourists are expected to drive performance, helped by the K-culture boom and a weaker won. The cumulative number of foreign visitors to Korea from January to May reached 8.716 million, up 21% from a year earlier. Spending by foreign credit card users also rose 47.3% over the same period, providing a boost to business sentiment.
Convenience stores also rebounded, rising from 85 to 127. The traditional summer travel season in the third quarter is expected to lift sales of core items such as beverages and ready-to-eat foods. In addition, convenience stores have recently become a popular stop for foreign tourists, adding to the upbeat outlook.

Large discount stores also moved above the benchmark, rising from 66 to 112 and shaking off the weak expectations of the previous quarter. Expectations for better results as the peak Chuseok shopping season arrives earlier than usual had a positive effect. Analysts also pointed to stronger sales at warehouse-style discount stores amid high inflation, as well as hopes for regulatory improvements to ensure fair competition between online and offline retailers.
Supermarkets, however, are expected to rise only slightly from 80 to 85, remaining below the benchmark. Intensifying competition with large discount stores, online shopping platforms and convenience stores over fresh food appears to have limited the increase.
Online shopping, with an index of 74, remained unchanged from the previous quarter, unlike the rebound seen in other retail formats. The growing influence of Chinese low-price platforms and intensifying price and delivery competition in the market are raising concerns about worsening profitability.
Lee Seung-ryun, head of the distribution and logistics policy team at KCCI, said, "To turn the recovery in domestic demand sentiment into reality, it is now important to successfully host nationwide shopping festivals such as the Korea Grand Festival in October and November, and to expand global partnerships between retailers and consumer goods companies."
The survey was conducted from the 5th to the 19th of last month through mobile and telephone interviews.
ehcho@fnnews.com Jo Eun-hyo Reporter