"China's Missile Is the 'JL-3'"...Signs of the End of Deng Xiaoping's Low-Profile Doctrine

[Financial News] China’s strategic missile test fired into the Pacific Ocean on the 6th is believed to have been the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) JL-3, which can reach targets across the United States.
That day, the Chinese military announced that one naval strategic nuclear submarine had successfully launched a submarine-launched strategic missile carrying a training dummy warhead in the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. However, it did not disclose the missile’s specifications.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the United States, told The New York Times that the Chinese military most likely tested the JL-3 this time.
The JL-3, China’s third-generation SLBM, has a range of more than 10,000 km, putting most of the world, including the U.S. mainland, within reach.
Once launched from a submarine hidden beneath the sea, an SLBM is far more threatening than nuclear weapons fired from the ground or the air.
China unveiled the JL-3 at a military parade in September last year.
This submarine-launched strategic missile test was China’s first strategic missile test aimed at the Pacific Ocean in 1 year and 10 months, following an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in September 2024.
Lewis said the test suggests China may accelerate over the next few years its testing of weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Referring to China’s increasingly advanced nuclear-capable missile force, he said, "It suggests that a new era of testing has arrived, one in which every system can openly show off its performance."
The interpretation is that China is moving away from the low-profile diplomatic and military posture known as taoguang yanghui, or keeping a low profile and biding its time, and is now signaling confidence that it has joined the ranks of major powers and has begun to pursue military expansion in earnest.
Lewis analyzed that "historically, China has conducted fewer ICBM tests than other countries" and that "the reason was political, but that political dynamic has now changed, and it seems to be adopting a more frequent testing approach."
He pointed out that, unlike in the past when China had restrained long-range missile tests out of concern for backlash from the United States and other major powers, it now appears willing to bear the political cost of launching ICBMs.


jjyoon@fnnews.com Yoon Jae-jun Reporter