"It’s Not Time to Pack Yet"... Opta Says South Korea Has an 87.6% Chance of Reaching the Round of 32 [2026 FIFA World Cup]

[Financial News] After a shocking loss following a poor performance, South Korean football fans were pushed into a maze of painful scenarios and deep frustration. Then, like a welcome rain after a long drought, a single ray of hope emerged. A sports statistics outlet projected that Hong Myung-bo’s team has an 87.6% chance of reaching the Round of 32, suggesting a dramatic turnaround.
The South Korea national football team, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, fell 1-0 to South Africa in its final Group A match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Monterrey Stadium in Mexico on the 25th KST. With one win and two losses, and three points with a goal difference of minus one, South Korea finished third in the group behind Mexico and South Africa.
In this 48-team World Cup, the top two teams in each group, 24 teams in total, advance directly to the Round of 32. The eight best third-place teams across the 12 groups also move on. South Korea now finds itself in a difficult position, having to hope that other third-place teams in remaining groups fail to earn even a draw and lose outright.
But amid the heavy sense of despair, unexpected good news arrived. Opta Sports, a football statistics outlet known for its credibility, offered a highly optimistic assessment of South Korea’s chances of reaching the knockout stage.
Based on its simulations, Opta Sports predicted that South Korea has an 87.6% chance of advancing to the Round of 32 as a third-place wildcard. Even after the loss to South Africa, the figure remained close to the 90% range, effectively signaling confidence that South Korea will go through. Considering the tangled race among the other third-place teams and goal-difference calculations, South Korea’s position with three points is not as unfavorable as it may seem.
Even more interesting is the projected Round of 32 opponent. At first, if South Korea advanced as a third-place team, the worst-case scenario suggested a clash with Germany, the likely Group E winner. But Opta Sports identified Egypt, currently leading Group G, as South Korea’s likely opponent in the Round of 32. It is a tough matchup with Mohamed Salah in the lineup, but simply avoiding Germany, one of the title favorites, is enough to bring relief.
Of course, there is no shortage of caution. In a hypothetical Round of 32 matchup between South Korea and Egypt, Opta Sports gave Egypt a 48% chance of winning and South Korea a 38.96% chance, signaling a difficult road ahead for a place in the Round of 16.
The price for throwing away a direct ticket to second place in the group is steep, but it is still too early to pack. With the South Korea national football team under heavy criticism for its lifeless performance, all eyes are now on the remaining matches in other groups to see whether Hong Myung-bo’s side can seize a chance to redeem itself on the Round of 32 stage with the help of the 87.6% miracle.
jsi@fnnews.com Jeon Sang-il Reporter