Options Market Says SpaceX Could Swing 10% Ahead of Index Inclusion and Analyst Reports... Up to $204 or Down to $166
- Input
- 2026-06-20 05:58:41
- Updated
- 2026-06-20 05:58:41
Options market investors appear to expect SpaceX shares to rise to as high as $204 next week or fall to as low as $166.
SpaceX closed at $185 on the 18th, up 37% from its $135 offering price on the 12th (local time). The market was closed on the 19th for Juneteenth, a U.S. federal holiday.
Amid intense investor interest and a severe shortage of IPO supply, SpaceX surged 57% above its offering price during its first three trading days through the 16th. It then fell for two straight sessions on the 17th and 18th, dropping 12.5%.
As the stock price swung sharply, Investopedia reported on the 18th that the options market expects SpaceX shares to move within a 10% range next week.
A 10% decline from the current level would put the stock at $166, while a 10% gain would lift it to $204.
$204 would be 51% above the offering price, while $166 would be 23% higher.
SpaceX, which listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, could be added to major indices and funds that track them as early as next week.
The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) and S&P Dow Jones Indices are expected to include SpaceX in some indices as early as the 22nd. Other institutions, including FTSE Russell of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), are also likely to move ahead with index inclusion by the end of the month.
Ahead of index inclusion, funds that track those indices tend to buy the stock, which often pushes the share price higher.
Another catalyst is investment research reports.
A series of research reports with target prices for SpaceX is expected to follow.
No full-scale analyst reports have been released yet. Oppenheimer set a bullish target price of $190 and Newstreet Research set one at $165, while CFRA was nearly the only firm to issue a report on the first trading day, the 12th, with a "Sell" rating and a target price of $115.
Underwriters must observe a "quiet period" for 10 days after the IPO price is set before analysts can publish reports. That quiet period ends on the 22nd. Since the offering price was set on the 11th, analysts at underwriting banks will be free to release research reports from the 22nd.
dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter