Options Market Says SpaceX Could Swing 10% Ahead of Index Inclusion and Analyst Reports... Rising to $204 or Falling to $166

[Financial News]  

Investors in the options market are expecting SpaceX shares to rise to as high as $204 or fall to as low as $166 next week.
SpaceX closed at $185 on the 18th, up 37% from its $135 offering price on the 12th. The market was closed on the 19th for Juneteenth, a U.S. federal holiday.
Amid intense investor interest and a severe shortage of IPO supply, SpaceX surged 57% above its offering price during its first three trading days through the 16th, then fell for two straight sessions on the 17th and 18th, dropping 12.5%.
As the stock has swung sharply, Investopedia reported on the 18th that the options market expects SpaceX shares to move within a 10% range next week.
A 10% decline from current levels would put the stock at $166, while a 10% gain would lift it to $204.
$204 would be 51% above the offering price, while $166 would be 23% higher.
SpaceX, which listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, could be added to major indexes and funds that track them as early as next week.
CRSP and S&P Dow Jones Indices are expected to include SpaceX in some indexes as early as the 22nd. Other institutions, including LSEG's FTSE Russell and MSCI, are also expected to move toward index inclusion by the end of the month.
Ahead of index inclusion, funds that track those benchmarks tend to buy shares, which often pushes stock prices higher.
Another catalyst is investment research reports.
A series of research reports with target prices for SpaceX is expected to follow.
Full-scale analyst coverage has not yet emerged. So far, the main reports have come from Oppenheimer, which set a $190 target price, and Newstreet Research, which set a $165 target price. On the first trading day, the 12th, CFRA was almost alone in issuing a "sell" rating and a $115 target price.
Underwriters must observe a "quiet period" for 10 days after the IPO price is set before analysts can publish reports. That quiet period ends on the 22nd. Since the offering price was set on the 11th, analysts at the underwriting banks will be free to publish research reports starting on the 22nd.

[email protected] Song Kyung-jae Reporter