[Editorial] We Must Seize the New Opportunities Created by the End of the U.S.-Iran War

The 106-day war between the United States (U.S.) and the Islamic Republic of Iran has effectively come to an end. U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran on the 14th, local time, and a signing ceremony for a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) will be held in Switzerland on the 19th. The uncertainty from the Middle East that had shaken the global economy is finally being resolved. Our economy, too, can now move beyond the burden of Middle East risk.
The real test starts now. With the end of the war as a turning point, countries and companies around the world will rush into a new era of free competition. To emerge as a leader in this fierce race, we must not miss two major policy directions.
First, there must be a return to normal conditions before the war. As oil prices stabilize, market intervention measures should be phased out. During the war, the oil price cap, which remained in place for more than three months, caused cumulative losses of more than 4 trillion won for the refining industry. The more market functions are paralyzed, the greater the side effects become. Of course, lifting the price cap too quickly could trigger a sudden burden on consumers. A careful normalization of prices is needed, with close attention to trends in international oil prices and with minimal market disruption.
Inflation is an even more difficult challenge. A sharp rise in oil prices affects consumer prices with a time lag, passing through producer prices and import prices first. Until now, companies have passed higher oil costs on to product and service prices. Once prices rise, they do not easily come back down. Even so, there is still ample room for the benefits of lower energy prices to be reflected in product and service prices. The government should closely monitor price trends and pay attention to managing inflation in line with falling oil prices.
The strong won is also still a challenge. If the won–dollar exchange rate stays in the 1,500-won range, the positive effects of lower oil prices will inevitably be reduced. Even if imported raw material prices fall in dollar terms, the decline feels much smaller when converted into won. As the recent weakness in the won has been driven largely by net foreign selling of stocks, the exchange-rate issue requires separate structural measures.
Along with these efforts to restore normalcy, we must also make the most of the business opportunities that the end of the war will bring. The Iran crisis exposed the vulnerability of energy supply and reaffirmed the importance of logistics networks in the Middle East. It also became a moment to confirm unexpected industrial competitiveness. A prime example is the defense industry. The extreme conditions of war once again tested the capabilities of South Korea's defense industry. Demand for defense equipment, fueled by the conflict in the Middle East, is likely to grow as the region works to rebuild its security after the war.
The same applies to rebuilding energy infrastructure and restoring plants. Reconstructing the production and refining facilities of oil-producing countries in the Middle East that were damaged by the war will require years and massive amounts of capital. For Korean construction and plant companies, this opens up a reconstruction market in the Middle East. The previously blocked export market there is also expected to reopen, and trade that shrank during the war may begin to recover.
Of course, optimism is still premature. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it may take up to 90 days for supply chains to fully normalize. It remains to be seen whether the ceasefire agreement, including talks over the nuclear program, will lead to lasting peace. Even so, the choices made at this critical moment matter. Turning crisis into opportunity is not just a slogan; it is a privilege only the prepared can enjoy. Now is the time for strategic agility: to move quickly toward normalization after the shock of war while also seizing the new market opportunities opened by the end of the conflict.