[Editorial] Even if the U.S.-Iran War Ends, Many Hurdles Remain Before Full Normalization

The war between the United States and Iran now appears increasingly likely to find an exit. On the 13th (local time), President Donald Trump said, "We are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war with Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz will be open to everyone immediately after the signing." Expectations are rising that the months-long war is nearing its end.
Until now, the possibility of ending the war had been raised several times, only to fall apart each time. This time, however, even the electronic signing procedure was disclosed, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, also said that it would be signed and announced once the final stage of negotiations is completed. That has further increased hopes that the war may indeed be nearing an end. It is clearly welcome news for the South Korean economy, which has been struggling with high oil prices and supply chain instability.
Still, many say it is too early to breathe a sigh of relief. The agreement first settles the principles, with details to be negotiated later. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen immediately after the signing, but key issues such as Iran's nuclear program, the release of frozen assets, and possible transit fees for the strait will be discussed further over the next 60 days. That is why some in Washington view the deal as a "60-day extension of the ceasefire" or simply "the start of the next round of talks."
Above all, the issue of transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty. The strait carries 20% of global maritime crude oil shipments and 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports.
If transit fees are imposed, they will inevitably be reflected in global oil prices and domestic energy costs. Araghchi recently said on Iranian state television that "the issue of managing the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the prewar state."
Other variables include the withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanon and backlash from hardliners within the United States and Iran. It is therefore difficult to rule out the possibility of renewed conflict entirely.
Even if an agreement is reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it will still take considerable time for ship traffic and logistics systems to fully normalize. ADNOC said that not only vessel movement but also production, storage, transport, insurance, finance, and logistics must all recover together. It projected that cargo volume would take at least four months to return to 80% of prewar levels, while full normalization would only be possible in the first half of 2027 or later.
Markets are reacting positively for now. Major indexes on the NYSE rose across the board, and international oil prices plunged. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened normally, expectations for stabilization in global energy prices and a recovery in stock markets will only grow. The South Korean economy will also benefit.
Even so, we must not forget that this agreement is still only a principle-level deal. There are many hurdles before a full end to the war, and it will take a long time for global supply chains to return to normal.
The government and industry should not treat falling oil prices as a temporary windfall. They should use it actively to stabilize inflation, while also preparing for the possibility that oil prices could surge again if negotiations collapse after the MOU.
In the medium to long term, Korea must not slow down efforts to diversify energy import sources, expand strategic oil reserves, and restructure supply chains in preparation for the possibility that new cost structures, such as transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, become entrenched. Strengthening the foundation for energy self-reliance through renewables and nuclear power is also no longer something that can be postponed. There are still too many hurdles to clear before we can be swept away by hopes of an end to the war.