Semiconductor Boom Pushes Tax Revenue Above Forecast by More Than 15 Trillion Won

[The Financial News] A semiconductor super boom could generate more than 15 trillion won in additional tax revenue by the end of this year, compared with the supplementary budget forecast.
According to government sources on the 14th, cumulative national tax revenue from January to April this year came to 142.1 trillion won. That was 15.4% higher than the 21.9 trillion won recorded in the same period last year.
If that pace continues through the end of the year, annual national tax revenue is projected to reach 431.5 trillion won. That would be 16.1 trillion won more than the government's revised forecast of 415.4 trillion won, which was included in the supplementary budget passed in April.
Even if this year's forecast is calculated using the five-year average April tax collection progress rate of 38.6%, national tax revenue would still come to about 425.1 trillion won. In that case, it would still exceed the supplementary budget estimate by roughly 9.7 trillion won.
Corporate tax is one of the main drivers of the increase. From January to April, corporate tax revenue totaled 39 trillion won, up 3.2 trillion won, or 8.9%, from a year earlier. In particular, continued improvement in earnings at semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is expected to have a positive effect on corporate tax revenue in the second half of the year.
Securities transaction tax revenue is also rising faster than expected. From January to April, it reached 4.1 trillion won, up 3.1 trillion won, or 290.9%, from the same period last year. By growth rate alone, it was the highest among all tax categories.
In April alone, securities transaction tax brought in 1.3 trillion won. Compared with April last year, the increase was 1.1 trillion won, or 506.2%.
The surge is attributed to a sharp rise in trading value amid a strong KOSPI. In March, the trading value of listed stocks reached 1,449.4 trillion won, about four times the level seen a year earlier.
As of the January-April cumulative total, securities transaction tax accounted for 2.5% of national tax revenue. That is a sharp increase from 0.9% for all of last year.
Income tax is also cited as a factor behind the excess tax revenue. By April this year, income tax revenue had reached 44.7 trillion won, up 5.9 trillion won, or 15.2%, from a year earlier. Analysts say the increase was driven by higher earned income tax from larger performance bonuses at companies and by capital gains tax from increased real estate transactions.
Uncertainty remains, however. Concerns over weaker consumption due to high oil prices and a strong won are seen as risk factors. That could also weaken value-added tax revenue. The government is expected to present a revised national tax revenue forecast around September after re-estimating tax revenue.
one1@fnnews.com Jung Won-il Reporter