"The war is ending, but what about Bitcoin?" ... It still has to clear the macro hurdle

[Financial News] As hopes grow that the Middle East crisis may be nearing an end, expectations are also rising that the cryptocurrency market could return to an upward trend. But with the possibility of benchmark interest rate hikes also increasing amid high oil prices and inflation, some say a full-fledged rally will depend on macroeconomic variables going forward.
According to CoinMarketCap, a global cryptocurrency information platform, Bitcoin was trading around $63,000 as of 3:30 p.m. the previous day, up 0.44% from 24 hours earlier. Over the past week, Bitcoin has gained 2.35%.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $126,000 in October last year, but has since fallen steadily. It held in the $70,000 to $80,000 range last month, but has been trading around $60,000 since this month. On the 6th, it even briefly dropped to the $59,000 level. The decline is seen as a result of growing geopolitical uncertainty, including the US-China conflict and the Middle East crisis, since last year.
However, there are growing expectations that the United States and Iran may now truly be able to reach a peace deal. At a White House event on the 11th (local time), US President Donald Trump said, "We just made a great deal with Iran on war, and only the final wording of the document remains."
Still, experts say a full rebound would be difficult even if geopolitical uncertainty fades. Investor sentiment toward cryptocurrencies has deteriorated sharply in recent months. Capital markets have been driven mainly by the expansion of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry, and stocks have posted stronger gains than cryptocurrencies.
According to Investing.com, Bitcoin had fallen 32% from the start of last year through the 11th. Over the same period, the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) rose 223.57%, the Nasdaq gained 33.65%, and the S&P 500 advanced 25.72%.
Hong Sung-wook, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "The cryptocurrency market has shown a clear downward bias recently." He added, "After DAT Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold 32 Bitcoins recently and then bought 1,550 Bitcoins a week later after the market downturn accelerated, the rebound remained limited."
Experts believe the direction of the cryptocurrency market will be determined by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed)'s monetary policy stance. If the benchmark rate enters an upward cycle, the decline could accelerate further. In general, when interest rates begin to rise, risk-averse sentiment strengthens.
Kim Ji-won, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 0.2% from the previous month, slightly below market expectations and easing concerns to some extent." She added, "The dot plot outcome from the upcoming first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to determine the market's direction."
Another variable is the clarification of cryptocurrency policy in the second half of the year. In particular, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a US cryptocurrency market structure bill, is drawing attention in the latter half of this year. Last month, the United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs sent the bill to the Senate plenary session, and on the 1st (local time) it was added to the Senate's legislative schedule. No exact vote date has been set, but some say it could pass as early as July.
yimsh0214@fnnews.com Im Sang-hyeok Reporter