SpaceX IPO D-Day... Wall Street Sees a $2 Trillion Valuation

[Financial News, New York = Reporter Lee Byung-chul]  As Elon Musk-led space company SpaceX prepares for its Nasdaq listing on the 12th local time, expectations are growing on Wall Street that its market capitalization could surpass $2 trillion on the first day of trading. In prediction markets and derivatives markets, sentiment is leaning toward the possibility that SpaceX will join the U.S. stock market's new "$2 trillion club."
According to prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability that SpaceX's market capitalization will exceed $1.8 trillion at the close on its first trading day was estimated at 84%. The chance that its market cap will top $2 trillion was even higher, at 69%.
SpaceX is expected to price its IPO at $135 per share. Based on that, its implied valuation is about $1.77 trillion. However, market watchers say a wave of buying immediately after the listing could push the company's value above $2 trillion in short order.
To reach $2 trillion from the expected $1.77 trillion valuation, the stock would need to rise by about 13% on its first day of trading.
Pre-listing perpetual futures prices on the crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid suggest that SpaceX shares could jump more than 20% on the first day of trading.
Still, optimism in the market had its limits. Even Polymarket participants took a cautious stance, assigning less than a 50% probability to the possibility that SpaceX's market capitalization could exceed $2.2 trillion.
If SpaceX breaks above the $2 trillion mark on its first trading day, it would join the exclusive "$2 trillion club" made up only of mega-cap U.S. companies. At present, only five companies in the U.S. market have market capitalizations above $2 trillion: NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet Inc., Microsoft, and Amazon.com, Inc.
If SpaceX reaches a $2 trillion market cap, it would also surpass Broadcom Inc., which is valued at about $1.85 trillion. Even the implied valuation of $1.77 trillion based on the IPO price would already put it ahead of Tesla, Musk's electric vehicle company, which is worth about $1.72 trillion.




pride@fnnews.com Reporter Lee Byung-chul Reporter