"When the Korean stock market takes a sharp downturn"... The KOSPI 8,000 era, the '3 major triggers' that will mark the start of the decline

Input: 2026-06-09 16:07:24

Updated: 2026-06-09 16:07:24

/Photo = YouTube channel 'Kim Jakga TV' [Financial News] The KOSPI, which fell by over 8% on 'Black Monday' and dropped below the 7,500 mark, recovered the 8,100 level on the 9th, just one day later.

Amidst a volatile market swinging to the point where the term 'Roller KOSPI' has emerged, experts have warned that market trends must be monitored calmly. Kim Kwang-seok, an adjunct professor at Hanyang University, recently appeared on the YouTube channel 'Kim Jakga TV' and explained the 'three major triggers' of the Korean stock market in detail.

He diagnosed, "Currently, the Korean stock market is driven by the power of abundant liquidity led by government fiscal spending, but paradoxically, because government bond yields are high, the shock when negative news breaks cannot be compared to the past low-interest rate era. " He added, "If government bond yields were low, the market would not be significantly shaken even if triggers were activated, but in the current high-interest rate environment, funds concentrated in the capital market could flow out in large quantities, causing the stock market to take a sharp downturn.

" 3 Major Triggers: IPO Illusion, Yen Carry Unwinding, and Slowdown in Semiconductor 'P' The first market trigger identified by Professor Kim is the illusion of large-scale IPOs. With global mega-companies such as SpaceX preparing for listings in mid-to-late June, Professor Kim stated, "Historically, large IPOs have shown a pattern of surging on the day of listing and the following day, followed by a flood of sell orders amidst controversy over overvaluation.

" He continued, "If this leads to a massive correction, as seen in the case of the fintech company Circle, the market "The entire market could become constricted," he warned. The second trigger is the fear of the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade.

The Yen Carry Trade refers to a transaction aimed at profiting from the difference by borrowing the low-interest Japanese Yen and investing in overseas assets with relatively higher interest rates. Professor Kim diagnosed, "Global monetary policy is in a phase of 'survival of the fittest.' While the U. S.and the U. K.

will likely opt for a long-term freeze as it is difficult to either raise or lower interest rates, the Eurozone, which is extremely sensitive to inflation, and Japan, which has declared an escape from deflation, are highly likely to implement interest rate hikes in June. " He further explained, "If the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan narrows, the appeal of Yen Carry funds investing in high-yield global assets with low-interest Yen will disappear, stimulating capital withdrawal (unwinding)." He warned, "Given that the domestic stock market collapsed in the past when the fear of Yen Carry unwinding was triggered, there is clearly a possibility that Asian stock markets will suffer a major blow in tandem. " The third trigger is the semiconductor industry's The possibility is a 'decline in price (P).

' Professor Kim predicted that the semiconductor industry is enjoying an unprecedented boom and that this trend will continue for at least one year. However, he noted that the market could be shaken if operating profit expectations are not met, given that more than 50% of the domestic stock market's capitalization is concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Currently, the unprecedented semiconductor boom is being driven not by an increase in sales volume (Q), but by price increases (P) resulting from AI infrastructure bottlenecks. However, companies such as Micron of the U.

S. , Changxin Memory of China, and Nanya of Taiwan are aggressively pursuing the DRAM sector with the full support of their respective governments.Professor Kim analyzed, "If bottlenecks are alleviated and prices (P) fall due to the pursuit by latecomers, the growth rate of operating profit will slow down and the upward trend in stock prices could also be broken. " He added, "Since the market has already priced in record-breaking performance and expectations are rising, even if earnings are good, failure to meet market expectations could trigger a shock, as seen in the case of Nvidia." U. S.

Inflation Indicators as the Final Variable Professor Kim identified U. S.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data as the ultimate key to the macroeconomic environment that could either detonate these three major triggers all at once or, conversely, cause them to evolve. The logic is that the moment inflation indicators spiral out of the market's control, the pressure of high interest rates triggers a chain reaction of all triggers.

In fact, as the release date of U. S.

inflation data approaches, the market's sensitivity to tightening due to anxiety is rising again.

5–4% level, the market will freeze, and if it exceeds 4%, it will threaten the real benchmark interest rate, materializing concerns about further Fed rate hikes and completely shifting the landscape." He added, "An inflation announcement that exceeds market consensus almost inevitably leads to a fatal market correction." However, he drew a line, suggesting that the rate hike would be limited rather than a massive "giant step" like in 2022.

Next-generation leading stocks are 'power and energy security'.

"Holding cash is the most dangerous in an era of inflation.

" Professor Kim noted that the trend of leading stocks in the AI era is transitioning to the next stage after semiconductors.

The point is that once the supply of semiconductors increases and bottlenecks are alleviated, the next bottleneck will inevitably shift to 'power and energy security' for data centers, which consume massive amounts of electricity.

The power consumption of hyperscale data centers is beyond imagination.

06 million.This is why countries around the world have chosen 'security' over efficiency following the Russo-Roman War and the Middle East conflict, accelerating the transition of their energy mix toward nuclear power, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), renewable energy, and Energy Storage Systems (ESS).As a suggestion to investors, Professor Kim asserted, "While we must keep a close watch on risk factors, this is still a time to hold investment assets (stocks) rather than cash.

" This means that the market environment is completely different from 2022, when holding cash was recommended.He pointed out, "We are currently in a phase where holding cash itself leads to a real-time decline in asset value due to persistent inflation," adding, "The question of 'Should I buy now?' was the same two or three years ago, and if you hesitate, you will never be able to enter." He continued by suggesting, "Keep the bottom line of macroeconomic indicators in mind and respond cautiously to volatility, but dip your toes into the leading sectors of this era where money is flowing and enjoy the bull market is an effective strategy to protect your assets.

sms@fnnews.com Seong Min-seo Reporter

· This article has been translated by GripLabs Mingo AI.

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