Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs: SpaceX's Real Core Business Is AI, Not Rockets

[Financial News]  

Morgan Stanley is reported to have projected that SpaceX's revenue will surge more than 18-fold by 2040.
Following Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley is also highlighting SpaceX's strengths. The two investment banks are serving as underwriters for SpaceX's IPO.
In particular, they emphasized that SpaceX's future growth engine will be AI, not rockets.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 5th, citing sources, that Morgan Stanley told major investors the previous day that SpaceX's revenue could reach $340 billion by 2040. SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue and a $4.9 billion loss last year.
Goldman Sachs, another underwriter, projected that SpaceX's revenue will exceed $470 billion in 2030.
The two banks also expect SpaceX's main business to be AI rather than rockets going forward.
Goldman Sachs forecast that $322 billion, or about 70% of SpaceX's projected 2030 revenue, will come from the AI segment.
Morgan Stanley was more conservative. It projected that SpaceX's 2030 revenue will approach $330 billion, with AI revenue at about $190 billion. That would put AI at roughly 58% of total revenue.
SpaceX said last year that its AI segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue.
During IPO marketing ahead of a listing, underwriter banks share projected performance estimates with selected investors. These estimates come from sell-side analysts at the banks, who operate separately from the investment banking (IB) divisions that directly handle the offering. Information sharing between the two divisions is said to be strictly restricted by law.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both projected that SpaceX's adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, would reach about $180 billion in 2028 and rise to $352 billion in 2030, according to Goldman Sachs, or $230 billion according to Morgan Stanley.
The two banks play central roles among the 21 underwriters handling SpaceX's IPO. They are expected to earn hefty fees.
SpaceX is set to list on NASDAQ on the 12th, with its first day of trading to follow. Its ticker symbol has been set as 'SPCX'.


dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter