"It’s Not Over Until It’s Over" ... Broadcasters’ Exit Polls Offer Opposite Forecasts in Several Races

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\r\n[Financial News]  In several constituencies widely seen as the fiercest battlegrounds in the 9th Nationwide Local Elections and National Assembly by-elections, broadcasters’ forecast surveys released at 6 p.m. on the 3rd, right after the polls closed, pointed to conflicting outcomes. Attention is now turning to the actual vote count.
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The most closely watched race was the Buk-gu, Busan A National Assembly by-election.
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\r\nIn the joint exit poll by Korean Broadcasting System (KBS), Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation (MBC), and Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS), Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate Ha Jung-woo was projected to win 42.6 percent, while independent candidate Han Dong-hoon was expected to take 41.6 percent. The gap between the two was just 1.0 percentage point, making it an extremely tight race within the margin of error. People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik was forecast to receive 15.8 percent.
JTBC, however, reported a completely different result. It projected that Han would lead with 48.1 percent, far ahead of Ha, who was expected to get only 37.6 percent, a margin of 10.5 percentage points. Unlike the three terrestrial broadcasters, which predicted a near dead heat in Ha’s favor, JTBC forecast a comfortable win for Han.
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Buk-gu, Busan A was considered one of the constituencies where the balance of power shifted repeatedly throughout the campaign. In various opinion polls, Ha led early on with support in the 40 percent range, but Han began closing the gap in May. In some later surveys, Han even pulled ahead, and the two candidates remained locked in a see-saw battle.
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\r\nThe Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi by-election showed a wide gap between the surveys.
The three terrestrial broadcasters put Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Kuk in first place with 31.1 percent. Surprisingly, People Power Party candidate Yu Eui-dong, who had remained in third place in opinion polls throughout the campaign, was close behind at 30.6 percent.
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\r\nAnother unexpected result was that DPK candidate Kim Yong-nam, who had been competing for first or second place, was projected at 30.3 percent. Still, the race was extremely close, with only a 0.8-point gap between first and third.
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\r\nJTBC’s survey produced a completely different forecast. Kim Yong-nam was projected to take the lead with 34.2 percent, while Cho Kuk was placed second at 31.6 percent. In other words, the candidate ranked third in the three terrestrial broadcasters’ survey rose to first place in JTBC’s forecast.
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\r\nThe Daegu mayoral election, in a city traditionally dominated by People Power Party support, also showed a subtle split between the two sets of surveys.
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In the exit poll by the three terrestrial broadcasters, People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho was expected to win 49.9 percent, while DPK candidate Kim Boo-kyum was projected at 49.1 percent, giving Choo a 0.8-point lead.
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\r\nBy contrast, JTBC projected Kim Boo-kyum at 49.7 percent and Choo Kyung-ho at 49.2 percent, putting Kim ahead by 0.5 percentage point. The margin was small, but the reversal in the predicted winner drew attention.
Political circles say the differences may stem from variations in exit poll methods, sample design, polling locations, and the way undecided voters were adjusted. Analysts also note that this year’s elections featured multi-candidate races, stronger-than-expected independent candidates, and late swings among undecided voters, which likely widened the gap between polling agencies’ forecasts.
Once the actual vote count is released, it will become clear which survey came closer to reflecting public sentiment.
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y27k@fnnews.com Seo Yoon-kyung Reporter