Ruling Party Seeks Victory Everywhere Except North Gyeongsang as Opposition Fights to Hold Seoul, Busan and Chungcheong [Local Elections]

As the day approaches for the ruling and opposition parties to receive the results of the June 3 local elections, a range of analyses is circulating over what each side would consider a victory. Many observers say the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is quietly aiming to sweep all metropolitan and provincial governor posts except in North Gyeongsang Province. The People Power Party, by contrast, has campaigned on defending the Yeongnam Region at all costs and, beyond that, winning in Seoul and other key areas. Political attention is now focused on whether both sides can achieve their different goals.
According to political circles on the 2nd, the consensus is that the DPK's benchmark for victory is effectively every region except North Gyeongsang Province. Even before the campaign entered full swing, predictions of a landslide win for the party had continued.
This local election is being held just one year after the launch of the Lee Jae-myung administration. That gives the ruling camp a strong argument that voters may want to give the new government a boost. The 8th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Elections in 2022 were also held shortly after the start of the Yoon Suk Yeol government. At the time, the ruling People Power Party won everywhere except in traditional Democratic strongholds such as Gyeonggi Province, Honam and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The Lee Jae-myung administration's high approval ratings are also seen as evidence that public sentiment may tilt toward the government and ruling party in this election.
Still, it remains to be seen whether the DPK can actually sweep every region except North Gyeongsang Province, as many analysts suggest. As the race enters its final stretch, so-called 'shy conservatives' have emerged, signaling a late consolidation of conservative support. In addition, issues such as internal disputes over nominations within the DPK are shaking up the election landscape.
In fact, DPK Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae classified six battlegrounds — Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang Province and North Jeolla Province — during a press briefing at the National Assembly on the 26th of last month. In the early phase of the campaign, those areas were all places where the DPK had been leading by more than the margin of error in various opinion polls.
In North Jeolla Province, Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled from the DPK over allegations of cash distribution and is running as an independent, is performing well by emphasizing an anti-Jung Chung-rae stance. In other regions, a conservative consolidation trend has been detected, and in many cases the gap between DPK and People Power Party candidates narrowed to within the margin of error before the polling blackout period.
In some basic local governments, candidates from the Rebuilding Korea Party, the Progressive Party and progressive independents are also doing well. That has led to the view that, contrary to earlier expectations, the party could end up with a disappointing result.
If the DPK also wins the closely watched National Assembly by-elections held alongside the local elections in Pyeongtaek-eul, Gyeonggi constituency; Busan Buk-gap constituency; Ulsan Nam-gap constituency; and the Gongju–Buyeo–Cheongyang constituency, the election is likely to be judged a landslide victory for the party.
The People Power Party has classified Daegu–Gyeongbuk as a strong area and Seoul, Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang Province, the Chungcheong region, and Gangwon State as battlegrounds. Its strategy is to hold the strongholds and plant as many flags as possible in the competitive districts. If it can defend the five Yeongnam Region areas, or even add a win in Seoul, the party is likely to describe the result as a strong showing.
Among those areas, the People Power Party is paying the closest attention to Seoul and Busan. Party leader Jang Dong-hyeok has repeatedly said since the early days of the campaign that the party must hold both cities. In politics, winning the Seoul Metropolitan City Mayor race carries special weight. The office is often seen as a 'deputy president' position because of its broad influence inside and outside politics, and the public tends to view a Seoul victory as equivalent to winning the local elections overall. However, some observers say such a result would not necessarily determine the survival of Jang's leadership, since candidates Oh Se-hoon and Park Heong-joon chose to keep their distance from him.
The South Chungcheong Province gubernatorial race is also expected to matter to Jang. That is because his constituency is Boryeong–Seocheon in South Chungcheong Province, making it his political hometown. A party official predicted, "If the People Power Party wins the South Chungcheong Province governor race, Jang's influence could grow further, centered on Chungcheongnam-do."
Inside the party, however, some remain skeptical, saying there are only two regions where victory can still be confidently expected. They note that while the number of battlegrounds has increased, the party is still fundamentally in the position of a challenger. A likely defeat in the 14 National Assembly by-elections is also weighing heavily. The People Power Party is hoping to win in Daegu Dalseong, Ulsan Nam-gap, and the Gongju–Buyeo–Cheongyang constituency. But if it ends up taking only three of the 14 seats, it will have no choice but to call that a crushing defeat. That is why even holding on to nearly five metropolitan and provincial governors would make the label of a 'strong showing' feel uncomfortable.
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gowell@fnnews.com Kim Hyeong-gu, Lee Hae-ram Reporter