Who Will Go Public First? OpenAI and Anthropic Compete on Wall Street

[Financial News, New York = Reporter Lee Byung-chul] OpenAI and Anthropic's rivalry for AI dominance is expanding beyond technology into a Wall Street race over who will go public first. Market watchers say that, just as much as the companies' technical competition, the race to list first and secure investor capital could shape the AI industry landscape for years to come. The competition is expected to intensify further as even Elon Musk's SpaceX pushes ahead with what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.
Anthropic recently filed confidential listing documents and is aiming for an IPO as early as this fall. OpenAI is also reportedly preparing for IPO procedures with investment banks.
What Wall Street is watching is not simply who goes public, but who gets there first. Because investment capital is not unlimited, the first mover is likely to absorb a large share of available funds. Patrick Healy, founder of Isure Network, told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "There is only a limited amount of oxygen in the market," adding that "SpaceX will suck up enormous amounts of capital, and the second company to list will be in a better position than the third, but not as good a position as the first."
Academic research has also found that IPOs tend to show clustering effects by industry, with later listings generally posting weaker performance. The pattern has often repeated itself: companies with stronger competitive advantages go public first, followed by firms with relatively weaker positions.
Still, going public first is not automatically an advantage. Markets may need time to assess the value of an industry that has not yet been fully tested. Facebook is a classic example. After its 2012 IPO, the stock fell by more than half within three months amid concerns over its mobile advertising revenue model. But once the stability of its business model became clear, the company moved onto a long-term upward trajectory.
Meanwhile, sentiment on Wall Street is currently favorable toward major tech listings. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems saw its stock jump 68% on its first day of trading last month. Among large IPOs valued at more than $10 billion, the only recent case with a stronger first-day gain over the past five years was Figma's 250% surge last year.
Adding to the pull of capital, Musk's space company SpaceX is also pushing for a listing this summer with a target valuation of about $1.5 trillion. Market participants say SpaceX is likely to become the largest IPO in history.
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pride@fnnews.com Reporter Lee Byung-chul Reporter