"Samsung Seen at 57 Trillion Won, Hynix at 42 Trillion Won in 2027... AI Memory Boom to Last" - SK Securities

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[Financial News] A revaluation of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is expected to gain momentum, driven by rising demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) memory and expectations of higher High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices. Analysts say the strength in the memory market could last longer than expected as demand stability through Long-Term Agreements (LTA) and the effect of HBM price increases reinforce each other.
According to SK Securities on the 2nd, its forecast for operating profit this year stands at 37.8 trillion won for Samsung Electronics and 27.2 trillion won for SK hynix, up 12% and 4%, respectively, from previous estimates. The brokerage also raised its 2027 operating profit forecasts to 57 trillion won for Samsung Electronics and 42.3 trillion won for SK hynix, up 10% and 13%, respectively.
The key reasons for the upward revisions include greater demand visibility from the expansion of long-term supply agreements, the possibility of a sharp HBM price increase in 2027, and improved earnings stability from a structurally strong industry environment.
Industry watchers say long-term supply agreements will help reduce volatility in the memory market. These contracts, typically signed for three to five years, secure stable demand while also raising the price floor, which strengthens earnings stability. Some also expect spot market shortages to worsen if suppliers prioritize volumes for customers under long-term contracts.
The industry expects HBM prices in 2027 to rise by at least 50% from this year. As demand for Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) expands and the market for seventh-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4E) begins to take off, price increases across the entire HBM lineup are seen as inevitable.
The rise in HBM prices is also expected to affect the broader memory market. If chipmakers expand HBM production, which is more profitable, a decline in DRAM output would be unavoidable. Given limited production capacity, some observers say NAND flash memory supply could also be affected.
Expectations are also growing for larger shareholder returns. Industry sources say that in the AI era, memory makers are seeing a structural improvement in profitability and earnings stability. As a result, more aggressive shareholder return policies are likely to be introduced from the second half of the year.
In particular, SK hynix is expected to see its net cash position exceed 100 trillion won in the third quarter of this year. Samsung Electronics is also drawing market attention, as its existing three-year shareholder return policy is set to end this year and investors wait to see whether a new policy will be announced.
moving@fnnews.com Lee Dong-hyeok Reporter