Korea's exports are set to reach the $1 trillion mark, with Japan within sight

[Financial News] Korea's exports, which surpassed $700 billion for the first time last year, are expected to exceed $900 billion this year and challenge the $1 trillion mark. The government, research institutes, and securities firms have all raised their export forecasts one after another. Some are even predicting that the Lee Jae-myung administration's goal of $1 trillion in exports during its term could be achieved within this year.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 31st, cumulative exports from January to April this year reached a record $306.5 billion, up 40.9% from a year earlier. That figure is far above the ministry's earlier annual export target of $740 billion.
Last year, Korea's annual exports totaled $709.3 billion, making it the world's sixth country to surpass the $700 billion mark. It was the first such achievement in seven years, since reaching $600 billion in 2018.
At a press briefing on the 27th, Trade Minister Kim Jung-kwan said, "There are other variables, so I am being cautious, but exports are expected to exceed $900 billion this year," adding that reaching the world's top five exporters is possible.
He added, "Semiconductor export growth is reaching 140%, so it may seem like everything is being driven by semiconductors, but other sectors are also posting growth of around 14 to 15%."
In fact, exports of Korean consumer goods such as beauty products (24.1%), fashion (13.7%), and food (7.8%) rose sharply in the first four months of this year. The share of exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) also expanded from 22.6% in 2024 to 23.6% last year.
Kim emphasized, "Unlike concerns that exports are concentrated in large companies, exports by small and medium-sized firms also rose 10%. That is a very encouraging figure."
The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET) also forecast on the 26th, in its second-half economic and industrial outlook, that exports this year will reach $924.4 billion, up 30.3% from last year. If exports settle above $900 billion, Korea will overtake Japan, which posted $738.2 billion last year, and rise to become the world's fifth-largest trading power.
The securities industry is also expecting exports to expand further. Meritz Securities Co., Ltd. projected that exports this year will reach $1.02 trillion. Lee Seung-hoon, a researcher at the firm, said, "As AI infrastructure expands, semiconductor and computer parts exports are expected to rise 160% and 212%, respectively."
Starting in the second half of the year, MOTIE will launch full-scale support measures to accelerate the era of $1 trillion in exports. It will provide a record 275 trillion won in trade insurance and operate Trade Barrier 119, a one-stop consultation channel to help export companies resolve difficulties. The ministry will also push ahead with the K-Export Star 500 program, which aims to identify 100 promising small and mid-sized companies each year for five years and nurture them into core exporters with annual sales of more than $10 million.
MOTIE said it will "establish a solid export structure by diversifying products, markets, and players, and leap forward as a trade powerhouse leading the era of $1 trillion in exports."
eastcold@fnnews.com Kim Dong-chan Reporter