"Musk Has More Than 90% Chance of Becoming the World’s First Trillionaire This Year," Predictive Market Kalshi Says

[Financial News]  
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As SpaceX moves closer to an initial public offering (IPO), its founder and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is expected to become the first-ever trillionaire this year.
CNBC reported on the 29th, local time, that traders on the prediction market Kalshi believe there is a more than 90% chance Musk’s net worth will exceed $1 trillion this year.
The outlook was very different when betting on Musk’s trillionaire potential began in September last year. At the time, Kalshi traders put the odds of Musk becoming humanity’s first trillionaire before 2027 at less than 5%.
But the odds began to surge after Musk’s net worth topped $500 billion in October last year, and again in December when the Delaware Supreme Court overturned a lower court ruling, allowing Tesla to regain the stock options it had agreed to grant him.
Markets are now betting that Musk has more than a 90% chance of becoming the world’s first trillionaire before next year. The probability of him reaching that milestone before 2028 was also high, at 93%.
The main reason Musk could become the first trillionaire in history is SpaceX’s planned listing. Expectations are rising that the company, which is scheduled to go public early next month, will attract a large amount of capital from the broader market.
After Bloomberg reported that SpaceX’s valuation had fallen, Musk denied it on the 29th. He said interest in the IPO is intense and expressed confidence that it will be a historic success.
Kalshi traders also believe Musk is more likely to become a trillionaire this year than SpaceX is to merge with his other companies, including Tesla.
However, Wall Street analysts such as Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities expect companies run by Musk, including Tesla, to be integrated with SpaceX by next year.
Ives said a merger between SpaceX and Tesla makes sense, adding that Musk wants to combine the two companies to expand his influence in the Artificial Intelligence ecosystem.
SpaceX filed its IPO application with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in April and plans to list on Nasdaq in early June.
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dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter