'KOSPI 8000' and the National Pension Service: Will a 170 trillion won sell-off hit the market? Fund committee emerges as the biggest variable for stocks

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[Financial News] As the KOSPI surges, the National Pension Service (NPS)'s domestic stock allocation has also risen, raising concerns that it may need to sell as much as 170 trillion won worth of shares. As a result, the National Pension Fund Operation Committee, which meets on the afternoon of the 28th, has emerged as the biggest variable for market liquidity.
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According to the financial investment industry, as of the end of February, the NPS's domestic stock holdings were valued at 395.1 trillion won, accounting for 24.5% of its total assets under management of 1,610.4 trillion won. But the KOSPI, which stood at 6,244.13 points at the time, had climbed another 31.78% to 8,228.70 as of the close on the 27th.
If the NPS's recently reported assets under management of 1,800 trillion won are applied simply, domestic stock holdings would be worth 520.6628 trillion won, or 28.9% of the portfolio. Based on the intraday high on the 27th of 8,457.09, domestic stock holdings are estimated to have risen to about 535.1 trillion won, or 29.7% of assets. In other words, the actual domestic stock share has exceeded the target level of 14.9% by more than 14.0 percentage points.
The NPS manages target allocations across asset classes through rebalancing under its medium- to long-term asset allocation plan.
When the share of a particular asset class moves far beyond its target, the fund sells excess assets or buys underweighted ones. This allows it to lock in gains when markets overheat and accumulate assets when they are undervalued, supporting long-term returns and portfolio stability.
This year, the NPS's target allocations are 14.9% for domestic stocks, 37.2% for overseas stocks, 24.9% for domestic bonds, 8.0% for overseas bonds, and 15.0% for alternative investments. With the ±3 percentage point range allowed under Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) and the ±2 percentage point range under Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), the fund can operate without mechanical trading within a total band of up to ±5 percentage points. That means domestic stocks can be held at up to 19.9%.
If the total fund reaches 1,800 trillion won, that would amount to 358.2 trillion won. In principle, the NPS would need to rebalance about 162 trillion to 177 trillion won, but it has temporarily deferred rebalancing until next month.
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As the rebalancing deadline approaches, market concerns about a potential NPS-led sell-off are growing. Because the NPS is the largest institutional investor in the domestic stock market, any full-scale rebalancing could create significant supply-demand pressure.
The market is watching the committee meeting scheduled for the afternoon of the 28th. The committee is expected to decide on the 2027-2031 Medium-Term Asset Allocation Plan, and there is speculation that it may raise the domestic stock allocation to reflect the market's changed status.
During an interim report on the plan's development on the 15th, the committee reportedly reviewed four options that would increase the domestic stock allocation. Among them was a proposal to raise the share to a level that would eliminate the need for rebalancing.
gaa1003@fnnews.com Ahn Ga-eul Reporter