A Global 'War of Money' Draws 65.4 Billion Won ... The Site That Predicted Trump Picks the Winner of the Seoul Mayor Race

[Financial News] With just one week to go before the 2026 South Korean local elections, which will be held on June 3, betting on Korean elections is heating up on Polymarket, the global decentralized prediction market platform where real money changes hands.
In particular, the Seoul mayoral election prediction market, which has attracted more than 65 billion won, is overwhelmingly favoring the chances of Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate Jeong Won-oh. Political circles are watching closely to see whether this flow of 'smart money' beyond simple polling will translate into the actual election result.

As of 4:20 p.m. on the 27th, cumulative trading volume in Polymarket's '2026 Seoul mayoral election winner' prediction market had surpassed about $43.54 million, or roughly 65.4 billion won. This is the largest ever among the 41 Korea-related prediction markets opened on Polymarket.
Participants on Polymarket currently see Jeong Won-oh's chances of winning as overwhelmingly high at 79%, while Oh Se-hoon remains at 22%. Jo Eun-hee and Ahn Cheol-soo are each below 1%.
Back in November last year, when the market was still in its early stages, Oh had the edge. But after the impeachment crisis, shifts in public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area and a backlash against the ruling camp combined to completely reverse the trend from around February to March this year. In particular, although their winning odds are below 1%, nearly $7 million, or about 9.5 billion won, has been traded on Jo Eun-hee and Ahn Cheol-soo, which appears to reflect hedge demand in anticipation of a conservative consolidation or other unexpected variables.

Polymarket's extreme figures differ somewhat from recently released domestic opinion polls. In surveys by Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation, JoongAng Ilbo and KBS, Jeong is leading by 45% to 48%, while Oh is at 32% to 34%, putting him ahead outside the margin of error. However, other results, such as a Chosun Ilbo-Metrics poll showing Jeong Won-oh at 40% and Oh Se-hoon at 37%, indicate a very tight race within the margin of error.
Experts, however, say Polymarket's 79% figure should be interpreted not as a simple approval rating, but as the market's level of confidence in a candidate's chances of winning. During the 2024 United States presidential election, Polymarket drew $3.15 billion, or about 4.7 trillion won, and rose rapidly as a 'barometer of smart money' after accurately predicting the result.
The biggest flashpoint in the current race is the so-called Han River Belt vote, covering Gangnam District, Seocho District, Songpa District and Gangdong-gu, Seoul, as well as the recent controversy over missing rebar at Samseong station on GTX-A.
Jeong's camp, which is pitching him as a Seoul Metropolitan City Mayor who can work in step with the Lee Jae-myung administration, has launched a full-scale offensive, calling the issue "a safety blind spot that has defined 10 years of the Oh Se-hoon administration."
By contrast, Oh's camp, which is aiming for an unprecedented fifth term in a directly elected local race, pushed back by saying it is "forcibly turning Hyundai Engineering and Construction's mistake into a political issue" and is betting everything on rallying conservative voters.
A political source said, "Polymarket does not guarantee the actual result 100%, but it is a symbolic indicator of how global capital is reading domestic political risk and the race," adding, "Over the remaining week, the prediction market's probabilities could swing sharply depending on the TV debates and whether the conservative camp unifies."


moon@fnnews.com Moon Young-jin Reporter