"August Is the Peak, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix Operating Profit Will Turn Down" ... After Talk of a 'Manspi' Rally, the 'Peak-Out Theory' Is Slowly Gaining Ground

\r\n
[Financial News] The KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) is climbing at an increasingly steep pace. After first breaking above the 7,000 mark on the 6th, it surged past 8,000 intraday on the 15th, just seven trading days later. As the time needed to add 1,000 points has become noticeably shorter, the domestic stock market rally appears to be accelerating.
\r\n\r\n
It took about 13 years and six months for the KOSPI to rise from 2,000 to 3,000. It then took another four years and 10 months to break above 4,000.
But since late last year, sentiment has changed sharply as the semiconductor rally and expectations for structural improvement in the stock market converged. The index crossed 5,000, 6,000, and 7,000 in just three months, one month, and two months, respectively.
On the 15th, the KOSPI briefly broke above 8,000 for the first time in history, but later fell back to 7,000 on foreign selling. The rebound was swift. After hovering around 7,200, the index jumped 8.42% on the 21st. Three trading days later, on the 26th, it even broke through the 8,100 level intraday.
Forecasts for the KOSPI from domestic and overseas institutions are also being revised upward. In a Korea market report released on the 20th, Nomura Securities raised its upper-end target for this year to 11,000. JPMorgan also projected 10,000 by year-end. In South Korea, HYUNDAI MOTOR SECURITIES CO., LTD. forecast 12,000, while KB Securities projected 10,500.
\r\n\r\n
Still, some are beginning to raise the 'peak-out theory.' After the sharp rally in semiconductors and the KOSPI, discussions are emerging that August to September could mark the peak. IBK Securities said semiconductor export growth could slow from September, and it forecast that operating profit growth at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could also decline from the third quarter.
Shinhan Securities also said KOSPI momentum could start to cool between the end of this month and next month. LS Securities expected the growth momentum in Samsung Electronics' operating profit to pass its peak in the second quarter of this year.
Individual investors, too, are showing signs of alternating between profit-taking and chasing gains. On the 15th, when the KOSPI fell more than 6%, and on the 19th, when it dropped more than 3%, individuals bought heavily, netting 723.1 billion won and 562.9 billion won, respectively. But on the 21st, when the index rose more than 8%, they sold more than 267.5 billion won.
Experts say investors should shift their attention to non-semiconductor sectors in the second half of the year. Kim Yong-gu, a researcher at Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd., said, "After August, investors should check whether semiconductor growth is slowing and decide whether to sell from the end of the year or early next year." He added, "This year, sectors such as autos, securities, and information technology (IT) hardware have already begun to outperform semiconductors."
gaa1003@fnnews.com Ahn Ga-eul Reporter