[Editorial] Even if the U.S.-Iran war ends, we must not let our guard down

U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 23rd, local time, that only final confirmation remained for a deal to end the war with Iran. The Middle East war, which began on February 28 with military attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, appears to be finding an exit 84 days after it broke out. The key agenda items in the talks between the two sides include extending the 60-day ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and limiting Iran's nuclear program. In return, measures such as lifting economic sanctions, including allowing Iran to sell crude oil freely, could be discussed.
If the war ends, the implications for the global economy would be enormous. The Russia-Ukraine war also dealt a major blow to the global economy, but the Middle East crisis has created an even greater sense of urgency for economies around the world. This incident has exposed the geopolitical weight of the Middle East. Once the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, countries faced an energy supply crisis, and surging oil prices combined with logistics disruptions to shake global supply chains one after another. Instability in crude oil supplies also caused major setbacks in the production of finished goods based on petrochemical feedstocks. That, in turn, triggered concerns over the supply of daily necessities and sharp inflation.
If instability in the Middle East is resolved, broad-based stabilization can be expected in the energy market, inflation pressures, and trade conditions. The end of the war could become a turning point at which the world economy begins to breathe again.
Even so, the negotiation process must be viewed with a cool head. It is more likely that the parties will choose a temporary ceasefire to catch their breath rather than a full end to the war. Moreover, it is not easy to address the issues of banning Iran's nuclear weapons development and handling enriched uranium, which the United States has insisted on as a prerequisite for ending the war. Because nuclear negotiations are inherently step-by-step, the process is highly complex and leaves room for disagreements. It remains unclear whether the talks will lead to a substantive and verifiable agreement on nuclear weapons.
Even if a formal memorandum of understanding is signed, a long road remains before real normalization is achieved. Removing mines from the strait, lifting the blockade, and gradually returning Iranian crude oil to the market will all take considerable time. Moreover, it could take years to fully restore the energy infrastructure and logistics networks damaged during the war. In other words, a declaration of war's end does not automatically mean economic normalization. It would also be too narrow to view this war solely as a conflict between the United States and Iran. Beyond ending the war with Iran, tensions between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah must also be resolved before true reconciliation and a genuine end to the war can be said to have been achieved.
For that reason, we should not simply ride the recent wave of optimism about an end to the long-running conflict in the Middle East. What is needed instead is crisis-management capability that keeps tension in check until the very end. The government must maintain its policy of diversifying energy supplies without wavering, while also reviewing responses to worst-case scenarios such as failed negotiations or renewed clashes. Companies, too, should not neglect preparations to diversify logistics routes and stabilize raw material supplies. They must continue reviewing the oil and logistics contingency plans that were examined in light of the Iran war.