Targeting an $8 Trillion Cash Pile... SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Near IPOs

[Financial News]  
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The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market is expected to post its biggest year ever.
Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei, who all helped launch OpenAI, are each preparing to list their companies on the stock market, raising expectations for a major market hit.
Musk's space company SpaceX is reportedly aiming for a listing next month, while Altman's OpenAI could go public as early as September. Anthropic, led by Amodei, is also widely expected to pursue an IPO later this year.
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The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 23rd local time that the amount these three companies could raise from the stock market through share offerings would far exceed the $156 billion record set in 2021, the largest IPO on record.
If their listings succeed, they could end the IPO market slump that has lasted four years and give new momentum to the AI theme.
On the other hand, if the market response falls short of expectations, it could deepen concerns about AI and place a heavy burden on the stock market.
Some say it is no coincidence that the three major contenders are preparing to go public at nearly the same time.
Rob Hilmer, founder of Goana Capital, which has invested in all three companies, said they appear to be timing their listings similarly because there have been few large IPOs over the past five years and risk appetite in the market is currently very strong. He added that with growth stocks in the public market now effectively scarce, these companies will draw enormous attention once they list.
SpaceX aims to raise $75 billion through its listing and lift its valuation to $1.75 trillion. OpenAI was recently valued at $852 billion, while Anthropic's valuation jumped to $900 billion after securing $30 billion in capital.
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Another investor who has stakes in all three companies noted that "money market fund (MMF) cash currently sitting on the sidelines is approaching $8 trillion," adding that "even if SpaceX absorbs $75 billion, that would be only 1% of the $8 trillion." He emphasized that "there is an enormous amount of cash waiting to be invested."
Their listings are also expected to play a positive role by spreading the warmth of the AI theme to other sectors.
According to the FT, public market investors have spent the past several years trying to gain exposure to AI growth mainly through semiconductor stocks such as NVIDIA. If these companies go public and open a direct path to investing in AI labs, that momentum could spread to the rest of the market.
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However, there are also concerns that their massive losses and continued cash burn cannot be ignored.
Pete Hebert, co-founder of venture capital firm Lux Capital, said the trio's lack of profits remains a hurdle. He noted that private-market investors have tolerated that because they are betting on future growth, but public-market investors may not be as forgiving.
Overvaluation is another issue.
SpaceX's target valuation of $1.75 trillion is 91 times its $19 billion in revenue over the past year. That is far above the price-to-sales ratios seen at major big tech companies.
Even NVIDIA, the most expensive among the Magnificent Seven by revenue, has a PSR of just 21 times. More importantly, NVIDIA is also highly profitable.
The success of SpaceX's IPO will depend on whether investors are willing to pay a premium for Musk's vision. If they take a cold, hard look, a flop would be hard to avoid.
Anthropic, which has emerged as a leader in AI by leveraging AI agents and overtaking OpenAI, recently turned profitable. But its planned heavy capital spending is expected to erode those gains.
Anthropic recently agreed to become SpaceX's largest customer and to spend $15 billion a year on data centers and computing power. It has also signed additional investment and spending agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with Google and Amazon.com, Inc.
OpenAI faces similar challenges.
Although it posted nearly $6 billion in revenue last quarter, it told investors that about $600 billion in cash spending will be unavoidable before it turns profitable in 2030.
Still, Hilmer of Goana Capital remained optimistic, saying these three companies are among the highest-quality names in history. He said they have strong operations and are building businesses with significant growth potential.
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dympna@fnnews.com Song Kyung-jae Reporter