SpaceX and OpenAI Near IPOs, Raising Fears of Capital Concentration

\r\r\r[Financial News, New York = Reporter Lee Byung-chul]Elon Musk's space company SpaceX has unveiled its IPO filing, setting a new milestone for global capital markets. Some market watchers even say the listing could become the first $1 trillion IPO in U.S. history. The filing also revealed, for the first time, financial details that had long been kept under wraps.
Following SpaceX, OpenAI is also expected to begin its listing process as early as this week, with a goal of going public in September. As the two companies seen as the twin pillars of this year's IPO market move toward listings, major shifts are expected across global capital markets.
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In its IPO filing on the 20th local time, SpaceX said it posted revenue of $18.67 billion last year but recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion. A large share of that revenue came from its Starlink satellite internet business. The space launch business generated $4.1 billion in revenue last year but did not turn a profit. By contrast, Starlink brought in $11.4 billion in revenue. The company began as a rocket launcher, but its actual earnings structure is already shifting toward a global communications and AI infrastructure company.
What the market is watching most closely is SpaceX's future growth strategy. In its IPO documents, the company said its total addressable market (TAM) stands at $28.5 trillion. It also disclosed that many of its revenue opportunities are tied to artificial intelligence-related businesses.
Through this IPO, SpaceX made clear that it is not just a rocket company. It identified the construction of a permanent settlement on Mars and the development of space-based AI data centers as core future businesses. According to the filing, a large portion of Musk's compensation is also linked to whether those ambitious goals are achieved.
The biggest variable in this IPO is ultimately the 'Musk effect.' SpaceX has structured its governance so that Musk will retain 85.1% of the voting rights even after the listing. Class A shares sold to retail investors will have limited voting power, while control is concentrated in Class B shares held by insiders. The company plans to raise about $80 billion through the IPO.
Wall Street analysts have described this as a structure in which investors are betting more on Musk's personal vision for the future than on the company's current performance. If the listing is completed successfully, the company's valuation could reach as much as $1.75 trillion. SpaceX is expected to list on the Nasdaq Stock Market as early as June under the ticker symbol 'SPCX.'
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OpenAI, best known for ChatGPT, is also expected to submit confidential IPO documents as early as this week. Major U.S. media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), reported that OpenAI has been working with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the law firm Cooley over the past several months to prepare for an IPO. The market expects OpenAI's valuation to reach the high end of the $1 trillion range, roughly on par with SpaceX.
There is also speculation that CEO Sam Altman is aiming for a listing as early as September. Still, some inside the company are urging a slower pace. According to the WSJ, Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has said internally that "it may take a little more time."
This IPO race is drawing attention not only because of the listings themselves, but also because it highlights the complex power dynamics within the AI industry. OpenAI began as a nonprofit research lab focused on developing AI for humanity. Key figures at the time included Sam Altman, Elon Musk and Dario Amodei, who is now CEO of Anthropic. They now lead their own companies and are locked in fierce competition in the AI field.
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Wall Street is paying close attention to the possibility that this year could become a historic IPO year centered on AI companies. If Anthropic also moves toward a listing, AI, space and data center industries could emerge as a new axis of global capital markets.
A common thread among the three companies is that they are all ultimately competing for dominance in AI computing. OpenAI is betting on ChatGPT and large-scale AI models, Anthropic on enterprise AI software, and SpaceX on space-based data centers and satellite internet as its future growth engines.
There are also concerns about capital concentration. Analysts warn that a 'mega black hole' effect could materialize, with roughly $240 billion in fresh money being pulled into new names across the stock, AI and cryptocurrency markets.
Market participants are especially focused on index inclusion effects. If SpaceX and OpenAI are added to the Nasdaq-100 or the S&P 500 soon after listing, exchange traded funds (ETFs) and pension funds could automatically pour in large amounts of capital. In that case, money could flow out of existing tech stocks and small- and mid-cap growth names and into AI megacaps, creating what some call a 'black hole effect.'
The organizations that manage the S&P 500 are reportedly reviewing rule changes so that mega-cap companies like SpaceX can be added to the index more quickly after listing. Under the current rules, companies must wait a certain period after going public before they can be considered for inclusion. The proposed change would shorten that period so large institutional investors can buy in earlier.
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pride@fnnews.com Reporter Lee Byung-chul Reporter