U.S. Politics Enters Full Election Mode in June as Trump Moves to Prevent Prolonged Iran Conflict

[The Financial News, New York = Reporter Lee Byung-chul] As the United States moves into the run-up to the November midterm election starting in June, analysts say President Donald Trump effectively has only a few weeks left to wrap up the war with Iran. Since March, major candidates from both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party have been steadily confirmed, and most nomination processes are expected to be completed by June. As the views of American voters begin to shape the election in earnest, Trump and members of his administration also plan to join nationwide campaign events. His recent public remarks about the possibility of striking Iran again, after returning from a visit to China, are being interpreted as part of that political calendar.
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Trump said on the 18th local time that he had temporarily halted a plan for another strike on Iran scheduled for the 19th. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote that leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE had asked Washington to stop the operation planned for "tomorrow." He added that they believed a deal acceptable to the United States could still be reached.
He then stressed that any agreement would include a ban on Iran possessing nuclear weapons. He also said he had issued further instructions to prepare for an immediate, full-scale, and massive attack at any time if no satisfactory deal is reached. A day earlier, Trump had warned that "time is running out" and said that if Iran did not come to the peace talks, "they will have nothing left."
Iran delivered a proposal to the United States through Pakistan on the same day. However, Axios reported that the White House judged the offer to be "not a meaningful advance over its existing position" and said it was insufficient to reach a final agreement.
In particular, the Iranian proposal reportedly left out any details on its nuclear program and only included a plan for the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also introduced a Bitcoin-based maritime insurance service for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the same day.
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Analysts say Trump’s fixation on ending the war with Iran early is tied to the start of the full election season. In the November midterm election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate are up for grabs. The outcome is expected to shape the momentum of the Trump administration in the second half of its term.
According to Fox News, primary elections or runoff votes are already underway in 12 states across the United States as of May. In June, candidate selection is also expected in key states such as New York City, California, and Georgia.
In particular, several major Southern states require a runoff if no candidate wins a majority, so fierce competition continues through May and June even after the spring primaries. For that reason, political circles in Washington, D.C. say the midterm election has effectively already entered its general-election phase in early summer.
Observers inside and outside politics also say that if there are no signs of lower oil prices by the time the June runoff elections are completed, voters are likely to view the Republican Party as the force responsible for economic failure.
Trump also plans to actively campaign in person to help secure a midterm victory. The Wall Street Journal reported that he is expected to hold more than 30 rallies nationwide before the election to support Republican candidates.
United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also appeared in person at a Republican House primary event in Kentucky on the same day to campaign for Ed Gallrein, a Trump-backed candidate. Gallrein is challenging Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican who has strongly criticized the war with Iran and Trump. It was widely seen as highly unusual for a sitting defense secretary to campaign directly for a specific candidate.
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Although the election is approaching, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since he returned to power. That is because the prolonged war has pushed global oil prices sharply higher, driving up gasoline prices in the United States as well.
According to a poll released by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena University on the same day, Trump’s approval rating fell to 37%. By contrast, 59% of respondents said they disapproved of his handling of the government.
In addition, 64% of all respondents said the war with Iran was a "wrong decision." Only 30% called it the "right decision." Among independents, who tend to be politically moderate, opposition to the war reached 73%.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average gasoline price in the United States has surged 51% since the war began, reaching $4.52 per gallon. Diesel prices, a key fuel for industry, also rose 51% to $5.63 per gallon, nearing an all-time high.
Financial Times (FT) reported on the same day, citing a Brown University study, that additional fuel costs borne by U.S. consumers since the war with Iran have reached about $40 billion.
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\r\nMeanwhile, The Hill, a congressional news outlet, reported that the United States Congress is close to passing a resolution to end the war with Iran. Last week, the House of Representatives and the United States Senate voted on a War Powers Resolution, and some Republican lawmakers backed it. Even among lawmakers who had previously opposed it, there are signs that some may now support it in the future.
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pride@fnnews.com Lee Byung-chul Reporter