"With the war dragging on, the peak season for U.S. maritime cargo may disappear this year"

As the war between the United States and Iran drags on, concerns are growing that the peak season in the U.S. maritime shipping market may disappear. Although demand is expected to slow, shipping lines are still maintaining their policy of expanding capacity on Asia-U.S. routes. However, the outlook for cargo recovery remains uncertain.
The International Logistics Investment Analysis and Support Center at the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) published a report titled "KMI International Logistics Weekly" on the 17th, covering these developments.
The report said the cargo peak season that usually appears in the U.S. maritime shipping market from around August to October each year is increasingly unlikely to take clear shape this year. Beyond a simple economic slowdown, structural uncertainty is deepening across the U.S. import market as geopolitical risks in the Middle East, high inflation, and weakening consumer sentiment combine.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and The Hackett Group recently said in their "Global Port Tracker" report that price increases and supply chain instability stemming from the prolonged Iran war are directly affecting U.S. consumer and logistics markets. In particular, concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies have grown as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, pushing up international oil prices and fuel costs and adding pressure to local inflation.
As a result, U.S. retailers are becoming more conservative in their inventory-building strategies, and some expect import volumes to fall further in the second half of the year. The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) released by the University of Michigan stood at 48.2 in May, the lowest level on record. Consumers also identified rising oil prices and tariff burdens as major cost pressures.
Even so, international shipping lines are maintaining their stance of expanding capacity, especially on Asia-U.S. trans-Pacific routes, despite the weaker demand outlook. According to shipping data analytics firm eeSea, capacity on Asia-U.S. routes is projected to rise year on year to 2 million TEUs in May, 2.13 million TEUs in June, and 2.2 million TEUs in July.
However, if the current slowdown in consumption and geopolitical uncertainty continue, it will not be easy for the added capacity to translate into actual cargo growth. The report suggests that this year’s U.S. logistics market has entered a new phase of uncertainty shaped not just by a slowdown, but by a combination of geopolitical crises, surging energy prices, and weaker consumption. It also noted that in the Middle East and India, countries are expanding efforts to build alternative logistics corridors to respond to maritime bottlenecks.
lich0929@fnnews.com Byeon Ok-hwan Reporter