Did the KOSPI Rise, and So Did the Birth Rate? "It Is Different From Real Estate"

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[Financial News] The strong performance of the KOSPI Composite Index was cited as a reason for the rebound in the birth rate earlier this year. The interpretation is that when the domestic stock market is booming, risk appetite and confidence in the future rise, which can have a positive effect on marriage and childbirth. Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, said in a report on the 6th, "The total fertility rate for January and February this year surged to 0.96, marking the highest growth rate since statistics began in 1981," and analyzed that "a strong stock market has a positive effect on the birth rate."
The total fertility rate for January and February this year rose 23% from 2024 and 11% from 2025. Based on this trend, Lee forecast that the birth rate would remain relatively solid at around 0.9 over the next year.
Lee pointed out that short- and medium-term birth rate trends should be viewed together with asset market variables such as stock prices and housing prices.
He especially argued that when stock prices rise, not only do investment returns increase, but expectations for the broader economy and risk appetite also improve. That, he said, can influence long-term decisions such as marriage and childbirth.
Lee said, "It may be that people made money in stocks and that pushed up the birth rate, but the risk appetite in the stock market and human confidence are fundamentally on the same axis," adding, "Marriage and childbirth are decisions people make when confidence rises, rather than when they are crunching numbers."
There have been similar cases in the past. Lee cited 2000, 2006-2007, and 2026 as periods when the birth rate rebounded even as home prices rose. Those were years when the KOSPI Composite Index was strong. He explained that rising home prices are a negative factor for the birth rate, but a stock market rally can partially offset that burden.
By contrast, 2016-2021 was identified as a representative period of worsening low birth rates. During that time, the stock market showed no clear upward momentum, while home prices surged. The explanation is that the practical burden of finding a home and the psychological sense of deprivation known as "bbelak-geojae" grew stronger, but the stock market did not generate enough asset-market confidence to offset them.
Recently, the KOSPI Composite Index has surged while home price gains have been relatively modest. With housing costs not rising as sharply as in the past and the stock market strengthening expectations for the future, Lee said the combination is favorable for the birth rate.
Lee said, "Right now, stock prices are surging while home prices are rising relatively moderately," and added, "The sharp increase in the January-February birth rate was no coincidence, and we can expect the trend to remain favorable going forward."
However, Lee stressed that the analysis does not mean the long-term low birth rate problem has been solved. He added, "In the short term, the rebound may last longer than expected," and "This year's birth rate trend will depend not only on demographic structure, but also on how long the confidence created by the stock market rally lasts."
fair@fnnews.com Han Young-joon Reporter