Ha Jung-woo, Park Min-shik and Han Dong-hoon set for a three-way showdown in Busan Buk-gu-gap [June 3 local elections]

The three-way contest in Busan Buk-gu-gap, widely seen as the most fiercely contested district in the June 3 by-elections for the National Assembly, has now been confirmed. In Busan Buk-gu-gap, Ha Jung-woo, the former Senior Secretary to the President for AI and Future Planning from the DPK, Park Min-shik, the former MPVA minister from the People Power Party, and Han Dong-hoon, the former People Power Party leader running as an independent, will face off. Attention is focused on whether Han and Park can form a conservative alliance and reach a unified candidacy.
Park Duk-hyum, chair of the People Power Party's Nomination Management Committee, said at the party headquarters in Seoul's Yeouido on the 5th that "Park Min-shik has been finalized as the People Power Party candidate for Busan Buk-gu-gap." He defeated his primary rival, former KBS reporter Lee Young-pung, to secure the party's final nomination. Park previously served in the 18th and 19th National Assemblies representing Busan Buk-gu and Gangseo-gap, and later became the first MPVA minister under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.
With that, the lineup for the Busan Buk-gu-gap race in the June 3 by-election has been set. Ha, who received a strategic nomination from the DPK, is carrying out campaign events on the ground, while Han registered as a preliminary candidate for Busan Buk-gu-gap on the 4th. As the three-way race takes shape, the campaign is already turning increasingly negative, since one candidate will need to stand out from the pack.
Busan Buk-gu-gap is one of the so-called Nakdong River Belt districts in Busan, a strategic battleground where conservative and progressive voters are not heavily concentrated on either side. Before Park won re-election, candidates from conservative parties usually prevailed there, but in recent years Chun Jae-soo, the DPK candidate for Busan mayor, has won three straight terms. In the 22nd general election, the DPK won only one of Busan's 18 National Assembly districts, taking Busan Buk-gu-gap alone and widening the gap to 17 seats to 1. The by-election will be watched closely to see whether the People Power Party or the broader conservative bloc can dominate Busan, or whether Ha's victory would preserve the current balance.
Recent opinion polls also show a razor-thin margin in the three-way race. In a poll released on the 4th by Busan MBC and conducted by Hangil Research among 584 voters in Busan Buk-gu-gap, Ha led with 34.3 percent, Han followed with 33.5 percent, and Park took 21.5 percent. The survey on suitability for the National Assembly seat in Buk-gu-gap combined automated response system (ARS) interviews at 84.3 percent and random digit dialing (RDD) at 15.7 percent. The response rate was 5.3 percent, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. (For details, see the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)
However, whether Han and Park will actually unify their candidacies is likely to be a major variable. Inside the People Power Party, there is growing concern that a split among conservative votes could boost Ha's chances of winning.
The party leadership, however, appears to be maintaining a negative stance toward unification with Han. Jang Dong-hyeok, chair of the People Power Party, said at a press briefing that day, "We expelled him based on the party's principles, and an alliance with someone who has been expelled is different from an alliance with another party."
The leadership is also keeping its distance from Han by hinting at possible disciplinary action against lawmaker Han Jia, who accompanied him when he registered as a preliminary candidate.
Parliamentary leader Song Eon-seok said on the 4th, "If we file a complaint against Han, the ethics committee will move to discipline her immediately," adding, "If she wants to help Han, shouldn't she leave the party first?" Jang also pressed the issue on the 5th, saying, "As someone who received the party's nomination and became a lawmaker with the support of party members, she has roles and responsibilities," and added, "We will clarify the facts and take necessary measures."
After receiving confirmation of his nomination, Park held a press conference on the day and said, "The chance of unification with Han is zero," adding, "The pro-Han camp should stop indulging in wishful thinking."
haeram@fnnews.com Lee Hae-ram Reporter