Trump’s Two-Pronged Pressure Strategy: Open the Strait and Squeeze Iran

[The Financial News, New York = Lee Byung-chul]As ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran remain deadlocked, President Donald Trump has made a bold move by saying he would rescue merchant ships and tankers stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The move is seen as an attempt to show that the United States effectively controls the strait while further pressuring Iran’s economy to strengthen Washington’s leverage.
Inside the Trump administration, signs are mounting that Iran’s crude oil storage capacity is nearing its limit. The decision to move to free ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz is also being interpreted as a way to buy time while watching the limits of Iran’s economy. Analysts say it reflects a dual strategy: keeping pressure on Iran while preventing a sharp spike in international oil prices.
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Trump raised the option of opening the Strait of Hormuz shortly after expressing a negative view of the 14-point peace proposal Iran presented over the weekend.
Iran had proposed a ceasefire plan to the United States that included the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East, lifting the blockade, unfreezing Iranian assets, paying war reparations, ending the fighting across fronts including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and establishing a new control mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s announcement that he would launch an operation to remove tankers and cargo ships trapped in Hormuz is being analyzed as a move to increase leverage while also stabilizing international oil prices. About 2,000 ships are reportedly stuck directly or indirectly in the Strait of Hormuz, and more than 230 tankers are waiting to load crude oil.
International oil prices fell slightly after Trump’s remarks. As of 8:35 a.m. on the 4th, Korea time, Brent crude futures for July delivery on ICE Futures Europe were down 0.41% from the previous session at $107.73 per barrel. At one point, they fell to $105.55 before recovering some of the losses. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for June delivery on NYMEX also fell 0.64% to $101.29 per barrel. During the session, they briefly dropped to $99.11, slipping below the $100 mark.
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The United States believes Iran does not have much time left to hold out. In a Fox News interview last week, Trump suggested that Iran is struggling with a lack of crude storage space, which could create problems for its pipeline system itself.
Trump said, "If the pipeline explodes, it can never be restored the way it was before."
Finance Minister Scott Bessent also said on the day that "U.S. pressure in the Strait of Hormuz is pushing Iran’s oil storage facilities close to capacity" and added that "if this continues, Iran may soon have to shut down wells, and that could become a reality as early as next week."
According to foreign media reports, Iran is expected to have no choice but to cut crude production within the next one to two weeks. Current utilization of Iran’s onshore storage facilities is estimated at about 60%, with stored volumes exceeding 50 million barrels and total storage capacity at around 86 million barrels.
In a report last month, energy consultancy FGE NexantECA forecast that Iran could begin reducing crude production from mid-June because of storage constraints. Iran is reportedly even bringing back into service storage facilities that had been close to being decommissioned.
According to The New York Times (NYT), the White House held intensive discussions last week over which side, the United States or Iran, holds the stronger bargaining chip. Some aides argued that keeping the maritime blockade in place for about two more months could inflict long-term damage on Iran’s energy industry.
That is because oil production facilities are not designed to repeatedly start and stop, so a prolonged shutdown could damage oil fields and lead to enormous repair costs.
Still, the operation carries significant risks. If it succeeds, the United States could secure effective control over the Strait of Hormuz and force a de facto full reopening. In that case, Iran would likely be left in a much weaker position at the negotiating table.
On the other hand, if Iran blocks ship traffic again or launches a military counterattack, the ceasefire phase could collapse and full-scale conflict could resume. Analysts say whether this so-called 'liberation operation' becomes a breakthrough in ceasefire talks or the spark for another clash will depend on Iran’s response in the coming days.
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pride@fnnews.com Lee Byung-chul Reporter