"Will They Really Not Eat Into My Money?" Samsung Faces Union Risk, While Hynix Worries About a Peak [MZ Money Diary]

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[The Financial News] Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. and SK hynix have been extending their sharp rally on expectations of a semiconductor supercycle, but investors are now facing different concerns about the two stocks. Samsung Electronics' record earnings were overshadowed by a labor strike risk that led to a lower target price, while SK hynix is drawing worries that its share price has already risen too far as expectations grow for its HBM dominance.
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According to the Korea Exchange (KRX), Samsung Electronics closed on the 30th of last month at 220,500 won, down 2.43% from the previous session. The stock rose from 186,200 won on the 3rd of that month to 220,500 won on the 30th, and intraday highs in April reached 230,000 won. The rally was driven by first-quarter earnings and expectations for HBM4.
The results were strong as well. Samsung Electronics said on the 30th of last month that its first-quarter consolidated sales came to 133.8734 trillion won, while operating profit reached 57.2328 trillion won. That marked the highest quarterly performance in the company's history. Its DS Division, which handles semiconductors, posted sales of 81.7 trillion won and operating profit of 53.7 trillion won.
Brokerages have also been raising their expectations for Samsung Electronics. KB Securities lifted its target price from 320,000 won to 360,000 won, while Korea Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. raised its target from 270,000 won to 330,000 won. The upgrades were based on expanded investment in AI servers, rising memory prices, and expectations for HBM4 supply.
What slowed that momentum, however, was not weak earnings but union risk. Citigroup Inc. kept its investment rating on Samsung Electronics at "buy" but lowered its target price from 320,000 won to 300,000 won. According to the financial investment industry, Citigroup analyst Peter Lee said in a report on the 30th of last month that if the labor strike intensifies, bonus-related provisions could weigh on short-term earnings.
Citigroup also estimated that if related costs are reflected, Samsung Electronics may need to cut its operating profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 10% and 11%, respectively. While the memory market itself remains favorable, costs and the timing of HBM mass-production approval have emerged as key short-term stock price variables.
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SK hynix is dealing with a different set of concerns from Samsung Electronics. Its earnings and industry outlook are strong, but its stock has already risen quickly. On the 23rd of last month, SK hynix said its first-quarter consolidated sales for 2026 reached 52.5763 trillion won, with operating profit of 37.6103 trillion won. It was the first time quarterly sales topped 50 trillion won, and the operating margin reached 72%.
Expectations for HBM remain high as well. In its first-quarter earnings conference call, SK hynix said, "HBM demand over the next three years will exceed our supply capacity," adding that customers are prioritizing securing volume over price. It also set a target of sample shipments for HBM4E in the second half of this year and mass production in 2027.
As a result, brokerage target prices have also moved higher. Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd. set SK hynix's target price at 1.8 million won on the 9th of last month. That was 164.7% higher than its previous target of 680,000 won. At the time, the average target price across brokerages stood at 1.408 million won.
Still, some analysts say investors are beginning to question how much more upside remains after such a rapid run-up. SK hynix is ahead in the HBM market, but there is also a view that much of the market's optimism has already been priced in. Going forward, whether HBM supply contracts, pricing trends, and continued AI investment by Big Tech can push the stock even higher will be the key issue.
Taken together, Samsung Electronics is facing a union-related variable despite strong earnings, while SK hynix is carrying concerns about a stock price peak amid expectations of HBM dominance. Both stocks are moving in the same broad direction as the semiconductor cycle, but investors are now watching whether labor tensions at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix's elevated share price can keep pace with earnings growth.
hsg@fnnews.com Han Seung-gon Reporter