'Prediction Market Giant' Polymarket Reboots Bid to Return to the US Mainstream [Crypto Briefing]

[The Financial News] Polymarket, a global blockchain-based prediction market platform, has begun formal talks with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as it seeks to reenter the US market. This marks its first comeback attempt in four years, after US users were blocked from accessing the platform in 2022 over allegations of unregistered operations. The move sets up a potential head-to-head battle with rival Kalshi, which has already secured a license. Industry watchers say the outcome of the negotiations could become a major turning point in shaping regulatory guidelines for digital asset-based derivatives.
According to foreign media and industry sources on the 2nd, Polymarket is currently negotiating specific terms with CFTC officials to resume services in the US. In 2022, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC for allegedly offering unregistered derivatives and agreed to block access to its platform for US residents.
The mood at the CFTC is said to be favorable. Reports indicate that sentiment is building both inside and outside the agency in favor of bringing digital asset-based perpetual futures and derivatives markets into the regulated system.
The so-called "event contracts" offered by Polymarket and Kalshi are a type of derivative that lets users bet on whether a specific event will happen. For example, a question such as "Will the Federal Reserve System (Fed) cut interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting?" is turned into a tradable contract through smart contracts, which automatically execute under preset conditions.
The outcome of participants' bets functions as real-time probability data that reflects collective intelligence, and it can sometimes prove more accurate than traditional opinion polls.
Polymarket's return would mean a direct showdown with Kalshi, which is already operating legally in the US. Kalshi has so far benefited from being first to secure a license from US regulators and establish a foothold in the regulated market.
Industry observers believe that if Polymarket returns to the US market, it could reshape the landscape by leveraging overwhelming liquidity and a wide range of event categories. One industry source said, "Polymarket's reentry into the US is a symbolic example of global blockchain infrastructure converging with a strict regulatory framework," adding, "It will play a central role in the process of establishing standards for future digital asset derivatives." The source also noted, "Given the CFTC's internal caution and ongoing concerns over the gambling-like nature of betting on political events, the key issue in the negotiations will be how robust a compliance and oversight system Polymarket can present."

elikim@fnnews.com Kim Mi-hee Reporter