No deal without nukes? Iran's new proposal complicates calculations inside the USA

[The Financial News New York = Lee Byung-chul]Iran has proposed a new negotiating framework in which the two sides would first agree to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with talks on its nuclear program to follow later. That has deepened concerns in the USA. It is a so-called phased approach, under which relatively easier issues are settled first and the core challenge of the nuclear issue is pushed back.
However, the USA, including President Donald John Trump, has responded skeptically. The main justification for the military action was to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. Still, some analysts say the practical gap between the two sides may not be as wide as it appears, since neither wants a full-scale war.
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On the 27th local time, Reuters, The New York Times (NYT), and other major foreign media outlets reported, citing sources, that Iran had conveyed to the USA its position that the two sides should first discuss ending the war and restoring normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while leaving the nuclear program issue for later.
At a regular briefing that day, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked about Iran's latest proposal and said, "President Trump met with his national security team this morning" and "the proposal was being discussed." The White House effectively confirmed the existence of Iran's new negotiating offer.
Earlier, President Trump rejected Iran's previous proposal last week and canceled a planned peace meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran is then said to have presented a revised proposal. The USA and Iran have been holding behind-the-scenes talks for more than two weeks over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. In particular, Iran has repeatedly rejected the USA's demand that it halt its nuclear program and remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
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The USA has so far reacted negatively to Iran's proposal. In a Fox News interview that day, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran's claim that the Strait of Hormuz would be open is effectively based on prior Iranian approval, making it hard to regard that as true freedom of navigation.
Marco Rubio also said, "Iran is trying to threaten the world with nuclear weapons" and added, "That is unacceptable."
According to NYT, President Trump held a meeting with aides in the White House Situation Room that day to review Iran's proposal. He was said to have taken a negative view of the offer. He has repeatedly said that Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is absolutely unacceptable.
In particular, the meeting reportedly focused on which side, the USA or Iran, has the greater leverage in negotiations. A key issue was which side could endure the economic shock from a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for longer.
Some aides argued that keeping the maritime blockade in place for about two more months could inflict lasting damage on Iran's energy industry. Because oil production facilities are not designed to be repeatedly turned on and off, a prolonged shutdown could damage oil fields and lead to enormous repair costs. They believe that pressure of this kind could eventually force concessions from Iran.
Other aides, however, countered that such an assessment was overly optimistic. They argued that hardliners inside Iran have gained more influence since the war and have become even more rigid on the nuclear program. U.S. intelligence officials are also said to assess that Iran's negotiating team does not have the authority to make concessions on the nuclear issue without approval from the supreme leader or the Revolutionary Guard.
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CNN reported that day, citing sources familiar with the mediation process, that the differences between the two countries are not as large as many had thought.
Henry T. Wooster, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East affairs in the first Trump administration, told Al Jazeera in an interview that President Trump is likely to accept Iran's proposal to ease the economic shock.
Henry T. Wooster said, "The top priority should be reopening the Strait of Hormuz," adding that it is "relatively easier to resolve" than the nuclear issue. He said the nuclear issue would remain a "difficult task to solve" in the future.
Asked whether he thought President Trump would accept Iran's proposal, he said, "It is quite likely that this will ultimately be the conclusion," and predicted that the nuclear talks would be pushed to a separate schedule, with the strait issue resolved first.
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pride@fnnews.com Lee Byung-chul Reporter