Iran Swayed by Hardliners, Second Ceasefire Talks in Doubt

\r\n
[The Financial News] As Iran's negotiating team rejected a second ceasefire round with the USA, claims have emerged that hardliners are gaining greater influence inside the country. The hardline camp believes that if Iran makes even a small concession to the USA on nuclear development or the Strait of Hormuz, the already fragile support base of the current government could collapse.
In a report on the 21st local time, the semi-official Tasnim News Agency said Iran's negotiating delegation had informed the U.S. side that it would not attend the Pakistan ceasefire talks scheduled for the 22nd. Tasnim noted that Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open on the 17th, but the USA did not lift the blockade on Iranian ports that had been in place since the 13th. It also argued that there had been no progress in the talks because Washington had not softened the excessive demands it presented in the first round on the 11th. Tasnim concluded that "Iran judged that sitting at the negotiating table under the current circumstances would be nothing more than a waste of time."
U.S. President Donald John Trump said the ceasefire with Iran would be postponed indefinitely. In a report on the 22nd, IRIB said the Iranian government would not recognize Trump's unilateral extension of the truce. It also stressed that Iran acts according to its national interests. On the same day, the Iranian military said through Tasnim that it was referring to the U.S. blockade of ports and warned that if the blockade continued, it would at least not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It also threatened to break the blockade by force if necessary.
However, the Iranian government had still not issued an official response to Trump's announcement of the ceasefire extension by the 22nd. Al Jazeera described Iran's stance as "very cautious." It added that "Iranian officials are not reacting emotionally to the extension itself, but are focusing on the broader issue."
Foreign media outlets say Iran's ambiguous stance reflects internal conflict. On the 19th, Iran International, an anti-government outlet based in the United Kingdom, reported that religious and military hardliners in Iran were attacking Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament who leads the negotiating team, on the Iranian social media platform Eitaa. They claimed Ghalibaf had shown weakness toward the USA and betrayed the wishes of the late supreme leader, who died in February. Saeed Jalili, a member of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a political rival of Ghalibaf, accused him of "plotting a coup." Some hardliners called on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to intervene in the talks and stop Ghalibaf's "betrayal." Iranian lawmaker Amir-Hossein Sabeti argued that the negotiating team should be impeached if it gives up Iran's right to nuclear development.
In a report on the 20th, the Institute for the Study of War said Ghalibaf, who supports the talks, is clashing with Ahmad Vahidi, the IRGC commander who opposes them, and assessed that power in Iran has recently been shifting toward the IRGC. Vahidi is said to be the only channel through which Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, the supreme leader's son, can be contacted. On the 21st, Fox News reported that the IRGC is taking control of key government functions by blocking even President Masoud Pezeshkian's personnel appointments.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran said in a report on the 19th that hardliners in Iran are especially sensitive about control of the Strait of Hormuz and the right to nuclear development. The outlet said that if Ghalibaf and others show even a slightly conciliatory attitude on these issues, they are denounced inside Iran as having "retreated." It added that the Iranian government has relied on even harsher rule after facing large-scale anti-government protests from late last year through January. The outlet said the government is now in a position where it cannot tolerate any concession that would further weaken already low national morale.
\r\n\r\n
pjw@fnnews.com Park Jong-won Reporter