Obama Managed It, Trump Wants It Removed... Full Pressure on Enrichment and Uranium

[The Financial News, New York City = Reporter Lee Byung-chul]Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has set the baseline for the latest nuclear talks with Iran by comparing them to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed under the Barack Hussein Obama II administration in 2015. He is seeking a deal that is even tougher than the Obama-era agreement. The two sides are reportedly coordinating around stricter terms than those in the 2015 deal, including how to handle highly enriched uranium and the scope of uranium enrichment allowed inside Iran.
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On the 20th, Donald Trump said on Truth Social that "the deal we are making with Iran will be far better than the JCPOA." He added that "the JCPOA was a sure path to nuclear weapons development, but that will not happen, and cannot happen, in the deal we are pursuing."
The Obama administration's 2015 agreement recognized Iran's nuclear program to a limited extent, while restricting enrichment levels, stockpile size, and the duration of those limits. In return, it offered broad sanctions relief. By contrast, the new deal Trump is pursuing aims for a long-term or permanent halt to domestic enrichment, the removal of all 60% highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief with limited permitted uses, and broader terms that also cover the Strait of Hormuz and missile and proxy issues.
The biggest difference is whether uranium enrichment will be allowed at all. Under the 2015 deal, the Obama administration allowed Iran to enrich uranium only to 3.67%, a civilian-use level, and only for 15 years. Trump’s side, however, is pushing for a complete halt to enrichment inside Iran. The United States once called for a 20-year suspension, while Iran demanded a five-year freeze. Still, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing negotiating officials on both sides, reported that the two sides are working on a plan under which Iran would suspend enrichment for 10 years and then be allowed to produce limited amounts of low-enriched uranium for at least another 10 years.
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The handling of highly enriched uranium is another major point of difference. The Obama deal limited the amount of enriched uranium Iran could keep and required excess material to be diluted or removed from the country. Under the 2015 agreement, the stockpile of highly enriched uranium was capped at 300 kg at 3.65%. By contrast, Trump’s side prefers to remove all of Iran’s roughly 400 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium from the country. France and the Republic of Türkiye are among the countries being discussed as possible destinations. If the Obama approach was about management and control, the Trump approach is seen as one of removal.
The difference is also clear on sanctions relief. The Obama administration offered sweeping sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear restrictions, including the release of frozen overseas assets and eased sanctions on oil trade. At the time, it agreed to unfreeze about $100 billion in Iranian overseas assets and lift restrictions on Iran's oil transactions. The Trump administration, however, is taking a more cautious approach to sanctions relief. There is a strong tendency to impose limits on how the funds can be used, while Iran is demanding that any relief be durable and irreversible.
In the end, Donald Trump wants a tougher deal than Obama did, but the threshold Iran must accept has also become much higher.
Ali Nasri, an Iranian international lawyer, told The Guardian that "there is a complex path to peace between Trump's test of whether he can prove he is different from Obama and Iran's choice of whether to resist short-term temptation and pursue a long-term strategy."
The analysis suggests that this negotiation is expanding beyond a simple question of suspending nuclear facilities for a few years or easing sanctions by a few percentage points. It is becoming a test of whether a new security order can be designed that goes beyond the Obama-era nuclear deal.
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pride@fnnews.com Reporter Lee Byung-chul Reporter