Middle East energy infrastructure damage up to $58 billion... Two years to return to prewar output [Second U.S.–Iran talks imminent]

An analysis has found that damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East destroyed since the Iran War broke out in late February has reached as much as $58 billion (about 86 trillion won). With warnings that it could take up to two years to restore production to prewar levels and imports of Middle Eastern oil disrupted, importers in Asia and Europe are turning to the United States, sharply increasing purchases of U.S. crude oil and refined products.
On the 15th (local time), CNBC reported that a new study by energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates the cost of repairing damaged oil and gas production facilities, refineries, and pipelines in Gulf countries at a minimum of $34 billion (about 51 trillion won) and up to $58 billion since the war began. The report said these facilities have been hit in the course of the conflict, driving up the bill for reconstruction.
Some facilities have not yet been fully assessed, so the final restoration cost is expected to rise further once detailed inspections are completed. Karan Satwani, a supply-chain analyst at Rystad Energy, warned that "surging demand for equipment needed for large-scale reconstruction will put severe pressure on the entire global energy supply chain." Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, D.C., on the 13th that roughly 80 energy facilities have been attacked since the war began on February 28, noting in particular that "more than one-third of them have been severely damaged."
He added that it could take up to two years to restore oil and gas production to prewar levels.
QatarEnergy said two facilities that account for 17% of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports were damaged in attacks by Iranian forces, causing an estimated $20 billion (about 30 trillion won) in lost revenue and potentially requiring up to five years to return to normal operations. Not only Qatar but also refineries and pipelines in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been hit. Iran itself has suffered the heaviest damage among Gulf states, as its natural gas and petrochemical facilities were attacked by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and it is expected to need around $19 billion (about 28 trillion won) just for reconstruction.
With imports of Middle Eastern oil disrupted, the United States is emerging as the main alternative supplier. Asian and European countries have increased crude purchases from the United States, pushing U.S. crude exports to 5.2 million barrels per day last week, up 1 million barrels in just one week. Exports of refined products, including gasoline, have also climbed to 7.5 million barrels per day. With so many tankers now heading to the United States, further export growth appears inevitable for the time being.
The Financial Times (FT) reported that intensifying competition to secure U.S. oil products could drive prices even higher and worsen inflation in the United States. While the U.S. government has not yet moved to restrict exports of oil products, Rapidan Energy Group projected that such controls could be considered if crude prices exceed $150 per barrel or if a cease-fire collapses.
jjyoon@fnnews.com Yoon Jae-joon Reporter